2017年全球钻石行业报告（英文版）_40页-8mb

Summary of the Global Diamond Industry 2017 Report

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the global diamond industry's performance in 2016 and the first half of 2017, highlighting key developments across the value chain, challenges, and the long-term outlook through 2030.

Main Points

1. Recent Developments in the Diamond Industry

• The diamond industry experienced a recovery in 2016 after a difficult 2015, with rough-diamond sales rising by 20%.
• Global diamond jewelry retail sales remained stable in 2016, with the US being the largest market.
• The outlook for 2017 is stable, with retail sales showing positive signals in major markets.
• The midstream segment, which includes cutting and polishing, faces pressure from fluctuating rough and polished prices, but is working on operational improvements to enhance profitability.

2. Rough-Diamond Production

• Global rough-diamond production volume remained relatively flat in 2016 at 127 million carats.
• Production increases occurred in Canada and South Africa, while declines were seen in Russia and Zimbabwe.
• Three new mines (Gahcho Kue, Renard, and Liqhobong) started production in 2016, expected to offset declining output from older mines.
• ALROSA and De Beers increased their market share to about 70% from 60% in 2015 due to inventory sales.
• EBIT margins for top producers improved in 2016, with ALROSA maintaining the highest margin.
• Miners are facing increasing geological and technical challenges, leading to investments in operational efficiencies and digital innovations.

3. Cutting and Polishing

• The cutting and polishing segment saw a slight revenue decline in 2016 due to soft demand, but purchased more rough diamonds in value terms.
• India became the dominant cutting and polishing center, accounting for about 90% of global polished-diamond manufacturing by value.
• Midstream profitability improved in 2016 due to declining rough prices, but faced pressure in 2017 as rough prices rose and polished prices fell.
• Midstream players are focusing on reducing days to market and improving rough-to-polished yields through new technologies like automated cutting and digital mapping.
• Inventory levels in the midstream returned to normal after a major clearance in 2015, with inventories remaining stable in 2016 and slightly decreasing in 2017.

4. Diamond Jewelry Retail

• Global diamond jewelry sales were roughly stable in 2016, with a likely slow growth in 2017.
• The US market showed growth in 2016, though major retailers faced declining revenues due to changing consumer trends.
• China's market declined in 2016 due to economic slowdown and currency depreciation, but sales rebounded in the first half of 2017.
• India experienced disruptions in 2016 from a strike and demonetization, but organized retail and consumer confidence led to a recovery in 2017.
• Europe saw a small decline in sales due to reduced tourist inflows, while Japan remained strong due to yen appreciation.
• Digitalization is a key trend, with major retailers like Signet acquiring online platforms and private equity funds investing in online retailers.

5. Margins and Inventories in the Midstream

• The midstream operates on thin margins and must continuously improve efficiency to sustain profitability.
• In 2016, midstream profitability improved due to the faster decline in rough prices compared to polished prices.
• Midstream executives expect stable demand for polished diamonds in 2017 but anticipate lower profitability.
• Inventory levels have returned to normal after a significant clearance in 2015, with a slight decrease in 2017.

6. Key Industry Challenges

• Slowing Demand: Consumer demand for diamond jewelry has slowed, particularly in key markets, requiring increased marketing efforts.
• Lab-Grown Diamonds: The threat of lab-grown diamonds infiltrating the natural supply chain or eroding market share is a major concern. Industry players are focusing on detection, disclosure, and differentiation to combat this.
• Financial Sustainability: Midstream players face challenges with fluctuating prices and tighter financing. They are addressing these through operational improvements and new technologies.
• Marketing Efforts: Rough-diamond producers are increasing marketing investments, with an expected $150 million in 2017, a 50% increase from previous years.

7. Updated Supply and Demand Model

• Global rough-diamond demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1% to 4% through 2030.
• Supply is expected to grow at 0% to 1% per year, reflecting a stable supply outlook.
• The long-term forecast is based on fundamental supply and demand factors, not short-term fluctuations.
• The US, China, and India are expected to remain the leading diamond jewelry markets, with continued growth in middle-class populations and consumer demand for diamond jewelry.

Key Information

• Market Stability: The industry is expected to remain stable in 2017, with retail sales showing positive trends in key markets.
• India's Dominance: India is the largest and lowest-cost cutting and polishing center, gaining significant market share.
• Marketing Investment: Producers are increasing marketing budgets, with a projected $150 million in 2017.
• Lab-Grown Diamond Threat: Industry efforts are focused on protecting the natural diamond supply chain through detection and differentiation.
• Midstream Improvements: Players are focusing on reducing days to market and improving yields through technological and operational innovations.
• Long-Term Outlook: The diamond market is expected to remain positive, with demand growing and supply stable through 2030.