20170714-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook_13页_237kb

报告摘要

Oil Crops Outlook Summary (OCS-17g, July 14, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. oil crops outlook for the 2017/18 marketing year, focusing on soybeans, canola, sunflowerseed, and peanuts, along with international developments in soybean and canola markets.

Main Points

Soybean Outlook

Planted Acreage: U.S. soybean planted acreage for 2017/18 reached an all-time high of 89.5 million acres, nearly matching farmers' initial intentions in March.
Harvested Acreage: Harvested acreage was forecast at 88.7 million acres, up slightly from the previous month.
Production: The 2017/18 soybean production forecast was raised by 5 million bushels to 4.26 billion bushels, due to higher harvested acreage, with the yield forecast remaining unchanged at 48 bushels per acre.
Stocks: Season-ending stocks for 2016/17 were reduced by 35 million bushels to 460 million bushels.
Prices: The average farm price for 2017/18 was raised by 10 cents to $8.40–$10.40 per bushel due to a less burdensome stock outlook.
Meal Price: The average new-crop soybean meal price was forecast to rise by $5 per short ton to $300–$340 per short ton, compared to $320 per ton in 2016/17.

Canola Outlook

Acreage: U.S. canola planted acreage for 2017/18 reached a record 2.2 million acres, up by 234,000 acres from March intentions.
Production: The 2017/18 canola production forecast was raised to 3.6 billion pounds.
Sunflowerseed and Flaxseed: Canola expansion came at the expense of sunflowerseed and flaxseed, which saw a decline in acreage. Sunflowerseed acreage dropped by 21% to 1.27 million acres, while flaxseed acreage fell by 24% to 283,000 acres.

Sunflowerseed Outlook

Peanuts: Peanut planted acreage for 2017/18 increased by 9% to 1.8 million acres, the third-highest on record.
Production: With a trend yield of 3,638 pounds per acre, the 2017/18 peanut crop is forecast to reach 6.45 billion pounds, potentially matching the 2012/13 record of 6.75 billion pounds.
Stocks: If realized, total supplies could reach an all-time high of 8.3 billion pounds, which may lead to stock accumulation.

International Outlook

China Soybean Imports: China's 2016/17 soybean imports were raised by 2 million metric tons to 91 million, and 2017/18 forecasts were increased by 1 million tons to 94 million.
Brazil Soybean Exports: Brazil's 2016/17 soybean exports were lowered by 900,000 tons to 61.5 million, but may increase by 500,000 tons in 2017/18.
Australia Canola Output: Australia's canola output is forecast to moderate in 2017/18 due to lower soil moisture, with production estimated at 3.2 million tons.

Key Information

Domestic Supply and Disappearance

Soybeans: For 2017/18, supply is forecast at 4.26 billion bushels, with imports at 25 million bushels and exports at 2,150 million bushels.
Soybean Meal: Supply for 2017/18 is forecast at 4,695 million bushels, with domestic disappearance at 3,420 million bushels and exports at 1,240 million bushels.
Soybean Oil: Supply for 2017/18 is forecast at 25,042 million pounds, with domestic disappearance at 20,450 million pounds and exports at 2,300 million pounds.

International Developments

China: Season-ending soybean stocks are forecast to increase to 19.2 million tons.
Ukraine: Sunflowerseed production is expected to rise by 500,000 tons to 14.5 million tons, with crush increasing by 400,000 tons to 14 million tons.
EU: Sunflowerseed production is forecast to decrease by 220,000 tons to 8.4 million tons due to drought and high temperatures in Spain.

Tables Overview

Table	Description
Table 1	Annual U.S. supply and disappearance for soybeans
Table 2	Supply and disappearance for soybean meal
Table 3	Supply and disappearance for soybean oil
Table 4	Supply and disappearance for cottonseed
Table 5	Supply and disappearance for cottonseed meal
Table 6	Supply and disappearance for cottonseed oil
Table 7	Supply and disappearance for peanuts