20180716-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2018.07.16_34页_2mb

Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2018/19 market year, including production, supply, use, and price forecasts. It also includes a brief analysis of the 2017/18 market year.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Planted Area: The U.S. 2018/19 rice planted area is estimated at 2.84 million acres, a 6% increase from March intentions and 15% higher than the previous year.
  • Long-grain: 2.13 million acres, up 18% from the previous year, with Arkansas and Mississippi being the largest contributors.
  • Medium- and short-grain: 708,000 acres, up 7% from March intentions and 9% from the previous year, with California accounting for most of the increase.
• Crop Progress: By July 8, 21% of the U.S. 2018/19 rice crop was headed, nearly unchanged from last year and the 5-year average.
  • Texas: 66% headed, slightly behind last year but well above the 5-year average.
  • Louisiana: 56% headed, 2 percentage points behind last year.
  • Arkansas: 10% headed, 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of last year.
  • Mississippi: 19% headed, significantly behind last year.
  • Missouri: 18% headed, well above last year, but affected by extremely hot weather.
  • California: 10% headed, up from 3% in 2017/18 due to improved weather conditions.
• Crop Conditions: Overall, 72% of the U.S. 2018/19 rice crop was rated in good or excellent condition, similar to a year earlier. California reported the best conditions at 95%.
• Supply Revisions: The 2018/19 U.S. rice supply forecast was raised by 5% to 2013.0 million cwt, with a 20% increase from the previous year's abnormally small crop.
  • Carryin: Reduced to 32.3 million cwt, down 13% from the previous forecast and 30% below the previous year.
  • Imports: Forecast at 27.0 million cwt, unchanged from the previous year.
• Domestic and Residual Use: Increased to 128.00 million cwt, up 5.0 million cwt from the previous forecast, while exports were reduced to 102.0 million cwt.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 42.3 million cwt, up 2% from the previous forecast and 31% from the previous year. This increase is attributed to a 20% rise in production.
  • Long-grain: 29.4 million cwt, up 8.5% from the previous forecast and 44% from the previous year.
  • Medium- and short-grain: 9.4 million cwt, down 1.5 million cwt from the previous forecast but 12% above the previous year.
• Farm Prices: Lowered slightly due to larger supplies.
  • Long-grain: Projected at $10.70-$17.70 per cwt, down 30 cents on both ends from the previous forecast.
  • Medium- and short-grain: Projected at $11.00-$12.00 per cwt, down 20 cents on both ends.
  • All rice: Projected at $11.60-$12.60 per cwt, down 30 cents on both ends.
• 2017/18 Revisions: Domestic use was raised to 129.0 million cwt, while exports were lowered to 90.0 million cwt.
  • Ending Stocks: Reduced to 32.3 million cwt, 30% below the previous year.
  • Long-grain: 20.4 million cwt, down 34% from the previous year.
  • Medium- and short-grain: 8.4 million cwt, the lowest since 2008/09.

U.S. Exports

• Total Exports: Projected at 102.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but up 13% from the previous year.
• Milled Rice Exports: Projected at 68.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt but up 13% from the previous year.
• Rough Rice Exports: Projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 13% from the previous year, with Latin America being the largest market.
• Long-grain Exports: Up 5.0 million cwt from the previous year, driven by competitive prices and increased supplies.
• Export Markets: Latin America, Middle East, Northeast Asia, and Canada account for the majority of U.S. milled rice exports.

Global Outlook

• Global Production: Projected at 487.8 million tons (milled basis), up 0.45 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.8 million tons below the previous year's record.
• Production Changes:
  • Increased: Guyana, the U.S., and Vietnam.
  • Decreased: Australia, South Korea, and Russia.
• Global Trade: Projected at a record 49.4 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from the previous year.
• Global Ending Stocks: Projected at 143.8 million tons, a 0.1 million ton decrease from the previous year.
• Price Trends:
  • Thailand and Vietnam continue to see declining prices.
  • U.S. long-grain prices remain steady, widening the price gap with Asian competitors.

Key Information

• Supply and Demand: The U.S. 2018/19 rice supply is up 8% from the previous year, driven by a 20% increase in production.
• Exports: Despite a 2% increase in ending stocks, exports are expected to be 13% higher than the previous year.
• Domestic Use: Increased slightly due to higher supply and post-harvest losses.
• Regional Variations:
  • Arkansas and Mississippi show significant increases in planted area.
  • California has seen a 9% increase in rice area, but still below 2016/17 levels.
  • Missouri and Louisiana have seen declines in crop conditions.
• Global Markets:
  • India and China are key players in global consumption and production.
  • Vietnam has seen a record production of 29.1 million tons.
  • Australia, South Korea, and Russia have experienced production declines due to water shortages and policy shifts.

Conclusion

The 2018/19 U.S. rice market is characterized by a larger crop and increased supply, leading to lower farm prices. Global production is expected to be slightly higher than the previous forecast, but below the previous year's record. The U.S. remains a major exporter, particularly of long-grain rice, but faces increased competition from South American and Asian producers. Global ending stocks are projected to decrease slightly, signaling a tighter global market.