2025-06-02-IMF-国际地震对北马其顿和西巴尔干地区的影响_北马其顿共和国（英）_20页_1mb

North Macedonia and the Western Balkans are highly vulnerable to international shocks due to increasing integration with the European Union. This integration, while fostering economic convergence, amplifies the transmission of external economic volatility. The core findings are detailed below:

1. Key Shocks and Channels:

   • Real Shocks: Euro-area real activity significantly impacts regional industrial production, with North Macedonia being most affected due to its deep integration, especially in the automotive sector.
   • Financial and Monetary Spillovers: Financial deepening and euroization moderate the impact of euro-area shocks. Serbia exhibits the strongest credit spillovers due to high financial integration, while countries with limited monetary autonomy (e.g., Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro) face constrained policy responses.
   • Energy Shocks: Global energy price hikes drive inflation across the region, with peak effects occurring 2-4 quarters post-shock. North Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina experience the largest inflation spikes; Albania's reliance on hydropower offers some resilience against energy inflation.

2. Structure of Transmission:

   • Integration, especially trade and financial ties with the EA, significantly enhances shock transmission.
   • Monetary Policy Autonomy: Countries with flexible exchange rates (e.g., Albania, Serbia) have greater policy space, while fully euroized or fixed-rate regimes (e.g., Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina) experience stricter output and inflationary pass-through.
   • Energy Vulnerability: High energy import dependency and significant energy intensity, particularly in North Macedonia, increase inflation sensitivity and trade balance deterioration.

3. Key Policy Implications:

• Mitigating Spillovers:
  • Reduce euroization through gradual currency reforms to increase monetary independence.
  • Strengthen inflation targeting and improve policy credibility.
  • Enhance social safety nets and fiscal tools to alleviate energy price volatility impacts.
• Investment: Promote value addition, diversify trade partners (e.g., reduce GVC risk), and increase energy efficiency.
• Integration Management: Balance deepening ties with the EU to access markets while maintaining safeguards against escalating vulnerabilities.

4. Overall:
   Western Balkan economies face substantial vulnerability to external shocks, driven by high trade and financial integration with the euro area but constrained monetary policy independence. Mitigation requires both adaptation to heightened linkages and reinforcement of policy frameworks for long-term resilience.