IMF-人口动态_劳动力市场一体化和移民_北马其顿共和国（英）-2025.5_16页_1mb

Summary

Population Decline and Projections

The Republic of North Macedonia is experiencing a steady decline in population due to emigration, revised census data showing an 11% reduction since 2010, with projections indicating further decline to 4-9% by 2030. This emigration poses a threat to potential output growth, estimated to drag it by approximately 0.5 percentage points. Factors include high emigration of youth, skilled workers, and potential increases with EU integration.

Labor Market Dynamics

Labor market outcomes remain below EU and regional peers, with a participation rate of about 65% compared to 75% in the EU. Unemployment is around 13%, still double that of the EU. The paper highlights significant gender gaps, such as a 21 percentage point labor participation gap between men and women in North Macedonia, contrasting with 18.7 in other Western Balkan countries and 8 in the EU. Productivity and matching efficiency are constrained, affecting overall economic performance.

EU Integration and Migration Modeling

Simulations using a structural multi-country model show that reduced migration costs from EU integration could increase emigration and negatively impact wages and output-per-capita unless boosted by productivity gains. Productivity-enhancing reforms are essential to offset these effects and stabilize or grow output.

Policy Recommendations

To counter population and labor market challenges, policies should focus on:

• Increasing productivity through structural reforms and new business support.
• Improving labor market outcomes with active labor market policies, business support, and enhanced labor participation.
• Addressing the gender gap via childcare access, education incentives, parental leave reforms, and tax adjustments.
  These measures can boost potential output and offset migration-related losses.

Broad Conclusions

Aging population and skilled outflows risk reducing competitiveness and growth. Policy actions, if implemented, can mitigate negative impacts and align North Macedonia more closely with EU standards for sustainable development.