国家经济和社会研究所-英国2021年秋季经济展望：复苏：停滞而非飙升（英）-2021-55页_1mb

Summary of National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Autumn 2021

Core Content

The National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Autumn 2021 outlines the economic situation in the UK post-Covid-19, emphasizing that the recovery is stalling rather than soaring. It highlights the ongoing challenges posed by supply constraints, fiscal tightening, and inflationary pressures, which together threaten the pace of economic recovery.

The report suggests that while the UK economy is expected to grow by 6.9% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022, these figures are tempered by persistent supply shocks, labour shortages, and increased inflation. The economic activity has been affected by a combination of domestic and global factors, including the Delta variant, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy prices.

Main Points

• Economic Recovery is Stalling: The UK is not experiencing a strong rebound but rather a stuttering growth pattern due to supply-side issues and fiscal constraints.
• Supply Constraints Persist: These include labour shortages, especially in the transport sector, and global disruptions. The UK's exit from the EU has worsened these constraints by reducing access to EU labour and affecting trade.
• Inflation Risks: Inflation is expected to peak at 5% in Q2 2022, driven by supply shortages, base effects, and rising global energy prices. The Bank of England is under pressure to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
• Fiscal Policy Tightening: The fiscal deficit is projected to return to 3% of GDP, with public investment below optimal levels. The October Budget provides only limited fiscal easing.
• Regional Disparities: The North of England and Northern Ireland are expected to be most affected by income inequality, household financial distress, and low productivity.
• Labour Market Dynamics: The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) has helped protect jobs, and the labour market is expected to remain stable. However, wage growth is expected to be modest, and real incomes for lower-income households will remain under pressure.
• Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence is expected to be damaged by rising prices and uncertainty about future restrictions, which may affect economic activity and investment.
• Sectoral Balances: The household sector is expected to move from net saving to net investment in 2022, while businesses will continue to borrow from the foreign sector.
• Monetary Policy Adjustments: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to raise interest rates to 0.5% by Q2 2022, and tighten policy through the run-off of QE holdings.
• Long-term Challenges: The UK faces long-term structural issues such as low productivity, inadequate public investment, and regional disparities. These are compounded by Brexit and climate change concerns.

Key Information

Economic Forecasts

• GDP Growth:
  • 2021: 6.9% (upward revision from Summer forecast)
  • 2022: 4.7%
  • 2023: 1.7%
  • 2024: 1.3%
  • 2025: 1.4%
  • 2026: 1.3%
• Inflation (CPI):
  • 2022: Peaks at 5%, then falls but remains above 2% until 2024
  • 2023: 3.4%
  • 2024: 1.9%
  • 2025: 1.8%
  • 2026: 2.0%
• Unemployment:
  • Expected to remain around 4.4–4.5% for the foreseeable future
  • No significant rise is anticipated after the end of the CJRS
• Current Account Deficit:
  • Forecast to settle at around 3% of GDP due to reduced EU capital inflows and increased imports from the Rest of the World
• Public Sector Net Debt:
  • Expected to fall below 90% of GDP by the end of the forecast period (around 10 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels)

Policy and Structural Issues

• Fiscal Policy:
  • Tightening is expected, with the deficit returning to 3% of GDP next year
  • The October Budget provides limited fiscal support
• Monetary Policy:
  • The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 0.5% by Q2 2022
  • Quantitative Easing (QE) holdings will decrease from £740 billion to £490 billion over five years
• Brexit Impact:
  • Reduced access to EU labour and trade
  • Increased reliance on imports from the Rest of the World
• Climate Change and Green Investment:
  • COP26 highlights the need for coordinated political and fiscal action
  • Green investment in the Budget is not sufficient to address long-term needs
  • Central banks can play a role in mitigating climate-related risks

Household and Business Impact

• Household Income Squeeze:
  • Expected to worsen due to rising prices and withdrawal of Universal Credit uplift
  • Destitution is forecast to double, with the hardest hit in the North of England and Northern Ireland
• Consumer Spending:
  • Likely to remain cautious due to inflation and economic uncertainty
• Business Investment:
  • Expected to be supported by fiscal space and monetary policy adjustments
  • Wage pressures are evident, with starting salaries outpacing settlements

Conclusion

The report calls for urgent and coordinated action from both fiscal and monetary authorities to address supply-side constraints, inflation, and regional disparities. It warns that the UK's economic recovery is fragile and dependent on global conditions, and that long-term structural reforms are necessary to ensure sustainable growth and equitable prosperity. The vision of the National Institute remains focused on improving understanding of economic and social forces and supporting policy to address these challenges.