英国国家经济和社会研究所-2025年夏季英国国家研究院经济展望（英）-2025.7_78页_3mb

National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Summer 2025

Key Summary

• Economic Performance:
  UK GDP growth is projected at 1.3% in 2025, slowing to 1.2% in 2026 due to trade uncertainty, weak household demand, and fiscal constraints. Average earnings growth is expected to rise from 4.6% (2025) to 3.6% (2027), supporting consumption but failing to offset persistent inflation.

• Inflation:
  CPI inflation is forecast at 3.3% in 2025, averaging 2.8% by 2026. Core inflation suggests risks of structural price pressures, driven by wage growth and lagging CPI adjustments.

• Monetary Policy:
  The Bank Rate is expected to fall from 4.25% (end of Q2 2025) to 3.5% by 2027, but inflation uncertainties may prompt further cuts in 2026.

• Fiscal Challenges:
  The government faces a £41.2 billion structural deficit by 2029-30. Current borrowing exceeds OBR forecasts, necessitating moderate but sustained tax increases or targeted spending reductions. Policies like hiking capital gains tax or reforming Council Tax are being considered.

• Distributional Effects:
  Living standards for the poorest 10% of households declined by 10% since 2023. Public expenditure must protect vulnerable groups, while investing in regions like Manchester could boost growth.

• Regional Disparities:
  Transport investment is unevenly allocated, with Northern and Midlands regions lagging. Public-private collaboration is needed to address connectivity gaps.

• Productivity:
  Productivity remains stagnant, below the OECD average. Public investment in research and human capital, particularly targeting deprived areas, could uplift performance.

Key Risks:

• External Shocks: Geopolitical tensions and tariff-related costs weigh on UK exports.
• Inflation Persistence: Upside risks sustain wage and price pressures despite policy actions.
• Fiscal Credibility: Breaching fiscal rules could erode market confidence and raise borrowing costs.