2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_Staff_Report_Staff_Supplement_Press_Release_on_the_Executive_Board_Discussion_83页_1mb

Summary of Ireland's Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement

Core Content

The document outlines the fifth review under the Extended Arrangement for Ireland, prepared by the IMF in consultation with its departments. It includes a staff report, staff supplement, and press release on the Executive Board's discussion, highlighting economic developments, policy implementation, and future outlook. The review was completed on February 13, 2012, following discussions with Irish officials on January 19, 2012.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Policy Implementation

• Strong policy implementation was noted, with 2011 fiscal targets met with a margin.
• Quantitative macroeconomic targets were achieved, and two structural benchmarks for end-2011 were observed.
• Financial sector reforms advanced, including bank deleveraging and personal insolvency reform.
• Fiscal consolidation was increased to 2¾% of GDP in Budget 2012, exceeding the original target.

2. Economic Outlook and Risks

• The 2012 growth outlook was revised down to ½% y/y, due to external challenges from the euro area recession and domestic vulnerabilities.
• Net exports are expected to be the main growth driver in 2013–15, supported by foreign investment.
• Private consumption is projected to decline further at 1.6% y/y, driven by house price declines and high household debt.
• Unemployment is expected to remain high, with structural unemployment a growing concern.
• Inflation is projected to stay below 2%, with energy prices being the main contributor.

3. External and Domestic Challenges

• Sovereign spreads have declined, but access to market funding remains uncertain.
• House prices fell by 47.4% from 2007, with mortgage arrears increasing.
• Bank funding is difficult, with deposit rates rising and credit growth remaining weak.
• NAMA asset sales exceeded the target, but weaker real estate prices may impact financial results.

4. Fiscal Performance

• 2011 Exchequer primary balance was a deficit of €14.2 billion, below the target.
• Fiscal over-performance was estimated at €1.3 billion, or 0.7% of GDP.
• Budget 2012 includes €4.3 billion of fiscal consolidation, with €1.1 billion carryover from 2011.
• Binding cash ceilings were introduced for current and capital spending through 2014 and 2016, respectively.

5. Structural Reforms

• Sectoral wage reforms and personal insolvency reforms are ongoing.
• Activation and training policies are being developed to support job creation.
• State asset disposals are part of the strategy to support growth and fiscal sustainability.

6. Debt Sustainability

• Government debt is projected to peak at 118% of GDP in 2013, and decline to 112% by 2016.
• Debt sustainability is fragile, especially with lower medium-term growth.
• A €5.3 billion buffer was included in the bank recapitalization to cover potential losses after 2013.

Key Documents Included

• Staff Report: Completed on February 13, 2012.
• Staff Supplement: Updated on February 24, 2012.
• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's discussion on February 27, 2012.
• Additional Documents:
  • Letter of Intent
  • Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies
  • Technical Memorandum of Understanding
  • Letter of Intent (European Commission)
  • Memorandum of Understanding on Specific Economic Policy Conditionality (European Commission)

Program Modalities

• The purchase subject to completion of the fifth review is SDR 2.786 billion (about €3.3 billion).
• Market access remains a key concern, especially in light of external economic conditions.
• The IMF supports the authorities' request for the completion of the fifth review.

Conclusion

• The staff appraisal affirms that the program objectives are on track.
• The ongoing reforms in the financial and fiscal sectors are critical for long-term recovery.
• Debt sustainability, house price declines, and high unemployment remain major risks to economic recovery.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators, 2008–13
• Table 2: Medium-Term Scenario, 2008–17
• Table 3: General Government Finances, 2008–17
• Table 4: Indicators of External and Financial Vulnerability, 2007–11
• Table 5: General Government Financing Requirements and Sources, 2008–13
• Table 6: Summary of Balance of Payments, 2008–17
• Figure 1: Real Sector and Inflation Indicators
• Figure 2: Housing Market and Mortgage Indicators
• Figure 3: Credit Developments
• Boxes:
  • Risk Based Supervision in Ireland
  • Reform of the Personal Insolvency Regime
  • Social Welfare: Scope for Reform
• Annexes:
  • I. Debt Sustainability Analysis
  • II. Fund Relations

Document Publication

• The Irish authorities consent to publication of the Staff Report.
• The policy of publication allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.