2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Union_of_the_Comoros_Staff_Report_for_the_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Three_76页_1mb

Summary of the 2012 Article IV Consultation and ECF Review for the Union of the Comoros

Core Content

The 2012 Article IV Consultation for the Union of the Comoros included a staff report, an informational annex, a Public Information Notice (PIN), a press release, and a statement by the Executive Director. The report was prepared following discussions that concluded on October 6, 2012, and finalized on November 30, 2012. It covered the third review under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, which was approved in September 2009 for SDR 13.57 million (152.5 percent of quota). The report also included a Financing Assurances Review and a HIPC Initiative Completion Point assessment.

Key Points

Background and Program Performance

• The ECF-supported program aimed to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve competitiveness, and support growth and poverty reduction.
• Comoros is a member of the Franc Zone, which limits its control over the nominal exchange rate.
• The program had seen a decline in performance during late 2010 and early 2011 due to delayed reforms and increased public sector wages.
• By mid-2012, the program had regained momentum with the reform-minded cabinet and stronger program ownership.

Macroeconomic Developments

• Real GDP growth is projected at 2.5 percent for 2012, up from 2.0 percent in 2009–11.
• Inflation is expected to fall to 5 percent by end-December 2012, down from 4.3 percent under the program.
• The external current account deficit narrowed to 6.9 percent of GDP, supported by strong exports and ECP (Economic Citizenship Program) revenues.
• International reserves are projected to reach 7.2 months of imports by the end of 2012.

Fiscal Performance

• The domestic primary budget recorded a surplus of 2.2 percent of GDP in 2012, compared to a deficit of 0.9 percent (excluding ECP windfall).
• Revenue exceeded program targets by 2.7 percent of GDP, driven by strong tax collection and ECP receipts.
• The wage bill remained within the programmed envelope, with a focus on expenditure control and reducing payment arrears.

Structural and Financial Reforms

• The privatization of Comores Telecom is on track for 2013, with a call for bids issued in late November 2012.
• The government is working to improve the efficiency of public utilities and the civil service through reforms and donor support.
• The Central Bank of Comoros is strengthening supervision and preparing a new banking law with assistance from the IMF and Banque de France.

Main Views and Recommendations

Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks

• Economic growth is expected to trend upward in 2013, with real GDP growth projected at 3.5 percent.
• Inflation is forecast to decline further as global fuel and food prices stabilize.
• The external current account deficit is expected to remain stable, with FDI continuing to grow slowly.
• Risks include dependence on global factors such as remittances, aid, and FDI, as well as potential price shocks on key imports like oil and food.

Fiscal Policy for 2013

• The domestic primary budget deficit is projected at 0.9 percent of GDP, with ECP windfall excluded.
• The government will continue efforts to increase domestic revenue, including improving tax and customs efficiency.
• Expenditure control remains a priority, with a focus on recurrent spending and public wages.
• HIPC/MDRI debt relief is expected to reduce fiscal financing needs from 2.6 percent of GDP to an annual average of 1.5 percent of GDP.

Structural and Financial Sector Reforms

• Public enterprises, particularly Comores Telecom, are undergoing reform with support from development partners.
• The government is opening the mobile sector to competition and improving connectivity.
• The state-owned oil importing company is reforming its tariff structure and internal controls with World Bank support.
• The electricity and water utility MA-MWE is receiving financial and technical assistance to ensure financial sustainability before privatization.

Program Monitoring and Risks to IMF Resources

• Program performance is monitored through quarterly quantitative targets and structural benchmarks.
• All but one of the HIPC completion triggers have been met, and a waiver has been requested for the last one.
• Staff supports the request for a waiver and recommends the completion of the fourth review under the ECF arrangement.

Key Information

• ECF Arrangement: Approved in September 2009, the three-year ECF is part of the broader poverty reduction and debt sustainability strategy.
• HIPC Completion: Comoros is close to meeting all HIPC completion triggers, with only one remaining.
• Debt Relief: HIPC/MDRI debt relief is expected to provide significant savings, which will be used to fund poverty reduction and arrears clearance.
• Exchange Rate: Comoros' exchange rate is tied to the CFA Franc, limiting direct policy control, but fiscal discipline and structural reforms are expected to maintain stability.
• Fiscal Space: Increased fiscal space from surplus and debt relief will allow for more domestic investment and improved public services.

Summary of Key Policies

• Public Finance Management: The government is working to implement an integrated computerized public finance management system with support from the AfDB.
• Civil Service Reforms: A new civil service organizational framework is expected to be implemented in January 2013, aiming for a more efficient and financially viable structure.
• Banking Sector: The banking system is generally sound, with improved prudential ratios. The privatization of the Development Bank of the Comoros and restructuring of SNPSF are key priorities.

Conclusion

The 2012 Article IV consultation and ECF review indicate that Comoros has made substantial progress in macroeconomic stability and fiscal consolidation. The government's commitment to structural reforms, supported by international partners, is helping to improve the business climate and public services. The staff recommends completing the fourth review under the ECF arrangement and continuing the reform agenda to ensure long-term sustainability and growth.