20171219-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_8页_460kb

Summary of EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DESKNOTE

Core Content

This document provides an overview of Turkey's debt redemption schedule and market conditions for the period leading into early 2018, with a focus on both domestic and external debt dynamics. It is prepared by Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. and authored by H. Erkin Isik, CFA, and outlines the key expectations for the Treasury and private sector in terms of borrowing needs and bond issuance plans.

Key Debt Redemption Schedule

• Domestic Debt Redemption:

  • The Treasury's domestic debt redemption is expected to be TRY 10bn in January 2018, which is higher than the previous two months (TRY 3.5bn), but still not excessively high.
  • In February, the redemption need increases significantly to TRY 20bn.
  • The Treasury plans to maintain a rollover ratio of around 110% for the coming months, consistent with the annual program.
  • The Treasury will issue bonds on the following dates:
    • 2y fixed coupon bond on 9 January
    • Zero coupon 12-month bond on 16 January
    • Major auctions for 5y and 10y fixed coupon bonds on 22-23 January, after the 18 January MPC meeting.

• Cash Cushion:

  • As of 15 December, the Treasury's cash account is at TRY 55bn, providing some flexibility in case of weak investor demand.
  • Some of this cash will be used in December due to seasonally high budget deficit.

• External Debt Payments:

  • External debt payments for the Treasury are low in the first two months of the year.
  • Payments increase to USD 2.3bn in March and USD 2.9bn in April, then ease in May-September.
  • The Treasury plans to issue USD 6.5bn in eurobonds for the year, down from USD 9.7bn in the previous year.

• Private Sector Debt:

  • Banks have USD 2.8bn in external debt redemption in the first two months, increasing to USD 4-7bn in March-May.
  • Corporates have USD 1bn in debt redemption in the first two months, rising to USD 1.5-2bn in March-June.
  • Both the Treasury and private sector are expected to take advantage of favorable market conditions to issue debt before redemption months.

Market Conditions and Data

• FX and Swap Rates:

  • USDTRY spot rate is 3,8266, with a daily change of -0.9% and a weekly change of -0.6%.
  • EURTRY spot rate is 4,5143, with a daily change of -0.6% and a weekly change of 0.0%.
  • The 1m forward rate for USDTRY is 11.47, with a daily change of -0.21% and a weekly change of -0.69%.
  • The 1m forward rate for EURTRY is 12.37, with a daily change of -0.14% and a weekly change of -0.41%.
  • ATM volatility for 1m is 11.90, with a daily change of 0.40% and a weekly change of -0.65%.

• Bond Market Overview:

  • Local government bonds and corporate bonds are listed with their respective prices, yields, and spreads.
  • The document includes a table of bond data, including local government bonds and corporate bonds, with details such as maturity, price, yield, and Zsprd.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• This document is a marketing communication and not investment research.
• It is non-independent research for the purpose of UK FCA rules.
• BNP Paribas and its affiliates may have financial interests in the securities mentioned and may engage in transactions that could conflict with the views expressed.
• The document may include back-tested performance data, which is for illustrative purposes only and does not guarantee future results.
• No assurance is given that any transaction will be entered into on the terms mentioned.
• The information is not intended as an offer to sell or purchase any financial instrument.
• Recipients are advised to consult with independent advisors and to understand the risks involved.

Disclaimer

• The information and opinions in this document are based on public sources and may not have been independently verified.
• BNP Paribas does not accept any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• The document may contain performance data based on simulations, which may not reflect actual market conditions.
• The document is for information purposes only and may be subject to change or discontinuation.
• The information is provided on a confidential basis and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.

Contacts

• Wike Groenenberg: Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC, London
• Marcelo Carvalho: Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam, Sao Paulo
• Piotr Chwiejczak: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
• Sai Ulluri: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
• Erkin İşkı, CFA: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, Istanbul
• Mirza Baig: Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore
• Altaz Daghia: AU/NZ IR Strategist, Singapore
• Dawn Kwa: Asia Graduate, Singapore
• Kun Shan: China Strategist, Shanghai
• Tianhe Ji: China Strategist, Shanghai
• Gabriel Gersztein: Head FX & IR Latam Strategy, Sao Paulo
• Samuel Castro: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo
• Gustavo Mendonca: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo

Additional Disclosures

• Options: Complex instruments that may not be suitable for every investor.
• ETFs: May involve tracking error, currency and geopolitical risks, and credit and interest rate risks.
• Convertibles and Unregistered Securities: May be restricted and only eligible for purchase by Qualified Institutional Buyers or non-US persons under Regulation S.
• Legal and Regulatory Information: Varies by country, with specific authorizations and supervisions in the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, and Italy.