20141211-法国巴黎银行-ASIA_AIRLINES_2015_Outlook__Time_to_be_selective_120页_3mb

报告摘要

ASIA AIRLINES 2015 Outlook: Time to be Selective

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for the Asia-Pacific airline sector in 2015, highlighting the positive impact of falling oil prices and recommending specific stocks based on valuation, competitive environment, and operational efficiency.

Main Points

Positive Outlook: According to IATA, 2015 could be the best year for the airline industry since 2001, driven by a significant drop in oil prices.
Fuel Price Impact: Fuel costs represent a large portion of operating expenses, with nearly 30% of airline costs in 2013 being fuel-related. The decline in oil prices has greatly improved airline profitability.
Fuel Price Trends: The Brent crude oil price dropped 40% year-to-date, and the Singapore Jet Kerosene price fell 35%, benefiting Asian airlines.
Investor Sentiment: The sector has already seen a strong rally due to the oil price decline, which means investors must be selective in their stock choices.
Recommendations: The report recommends AirAsia, China Southern Airlines, and Japan Airlines as top picks, while downgrading Air China, Cathay Pacific, China Eastern, Korean Air, Asiana, and ANA Holdings to HOLD or REDUCE.

Key Recommendations

Company	Rating	Share Price	Target Price	Upside/Downside	Notes
AirAsia	BUY	2.73	3.36	+22.9%	Strong upside potential
Japan Airlines	BUY	3,720.00	4,520.00	+21.5%	Attractive valuation, potential credit rating boost
China Southern	BUY	3.70	4.48	+21.0%	Relatively low valuation
AirAsia X BHD	BUY	0.68	0.77	+13.9%	Improved competitive environment
Air China	HOLD	6.16	6.64	+7.9%	Fairly valued
Cathay Pacific	HOLD	17.24	17.20	-0.2%	Fairly valued
China Eastern	HOLD	3.73	3.71	-0.5%	Fairly valued
Singapore Airlines	HOLD	11.44	11.38	-0.5%	Share price has already factored in benefits of falling oil prices
Asiana Airlines	HOLD	6,440.00	6,050.00	-6.1%	Fairly valued
Korea Air Lines	HOLD	48,800.00	44,600.00	-8.6%	Fairly valued
ANA Holdings	REDUCE	296.00	257.00	-13.2%	Overvalued, significant JPY depreciation risk

Investment Thesis

Fuel Hedging Exposure: Airlines with minimal hedging exposure are more likely to benefit from falling oil prices.
Competitive Environment: Markets with improving supply/demand dynamics and lower competition are preferred.
Valuation: Airlines with undemanding valuations are more attractive for investment.
Key Drivers: The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing each airline's specific situation, including revenue trends, cost structures, and balance sheet health.

Regional Outlook

Malaysia: AirAsia and AirAsia X are favored due to more rational competition and attractive valuations.
Japan: Japan Airlines is preferred for its strong fundamentals and potential credit rating upgrade. ANA Holdings is seen as overvalued.
China: China Southern Airlines is highlighted for its low valuation and potential for profitability improvement.
Korea: The market is considered challenging due to LCC competition and direct flights between China and the US.
Singapore: The competitive environment and aggressive capacity expansion of Gulf carriers are noted as key factors affecting profitability.

Summary of Key Themes for 2015

Theme	Revenue Factors	Cost Factors	Balance Sheet & Other Aspects
SIA	RASK pressure on regional and US flights	Impact of new fuel-efficient aircraft	Profit contribution from JVs and Scoot
Cathay Pacific	RASK pressure on regional and US flights, ASK growth, yield and RAFTK on cargo	Impact of new fuel-efficient aircraft	Cargo operations profitability
AirAsia	RASK improvement on Malaysian market, ASK growth	Depreciation costs for Malaysian entity	Profit contribution from Thai AirAsia, impact of aircraft sale
AirAsia X	RASK improvement on Malaysian market, ASK growth cuts	Costs cutting strategy impact	Sale and leaseback transactions impact
Korean Air	RASK trends on Japan and US flights, ASK growth	Impact of new fuel-efficient aircraft	Intercompany loans or cash injections
Asiana	RASK trends on Japanese flights	Impact of new fuel-efficient aircraft	-
Air China	RASK improvement on domestic and international markets, ASK growth	Impact of new fuel-efficient aircraft	Cargo operations profitability
China Eastern	RASK improvement on domestic and international markets, ASK growth	Impact of new fuel-efficient aircraft	-
China Southern	RASK improvement on domestic and international markets, ASK growth	Impact of new fuel-efficient aircraft	-
Japan Airlines	RASK trends on international and domestic markets	Impact of new fuel-efficient aircraft and JPY depreciation	Investment-grade credit rating
ANA Holdings	RASK trends on international and domestic markets	Impact of new fuel-efficient aircraft and JPY depreciation	-

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the overall airline industry in Asia is expected to benefit from falling oil prices, investors should be selective. Airlines with low hedging exposure, improving competitive environments, and undemanding valuations are highlighted as the most attractive opportunities. The key focus is on AirAsia, China Southern, and Japan Airlines, which are seen as having the best upside potential. The market has already priced in many of the positives, leaving fewer opportunities for bottom-fishing. The report also notes that the Korean and Singapore markets are more challenging due to competition and market dynamics.

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