2009年-世界发展银行全球_Uruguay_-_Country_Note_on_Climate_Change_Aspects_in_Agriculture_12页_3mb

Uruguay: Climate Change and Agriculture

Core Content

Uruguay is a developing country in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) that has demonstrated a strong commitment to addressing climate change through policy and institutional frameworks. It has submitted two National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), making it one of the few countries in the region with such a proactive stance. Despite its significant contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector, Uruguay's overall impact on global emissions is relatively small due to its low population and limited territorial size.

Agriculture is a vital component of Uruguay's economy, contributing 65% of the country's export sources. However, it is also the largest emitter of GHG, accounting for 50.2% of total emissions in 2000, with methane from enteric fermentation being the primary source (91% of total methane emissions). The agricultural sector also contributes to 99% of nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, mainly from animal manure, and 7% of carbon monoxide emissions, primarily from burning agricultural waste.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Climate Context

• Agricultural land use: About 85% of Uruguay's land is used for agriculture, with 77% for pasture and 8% for cultivation. Forestry occupies 9% of the land.

• Climate projections:

  • Temperature increases: Expected to be 0.3–0.5°C by 2020, 1–2.5°C by 2050, and 3.4°C by 2100.
  • Precipitation increases: Projected to reach 112 mm/month by 2020 and 157 mm/month by 2100.
  • Sea level rise: Predicted to increase by 5–10 cm by 2020, 12–20 cm by 2050, and 40–65 cm by 2100.
  • Extreme weather events: Expected to increase in frequency and intensity, including heavy rainfall, intense winds, storms, and hail, which may lead to higher pest and disease incidence.

• Climate change impacts on agriculture:

  • Maize yield reduction: Predicted to be 14% at 2°C temperature increase and 25% at 4°C.
  • Historical impacts: Between 1997 and 2006, extreme weather events caused an average loss of 0.17% of GDP and affected 4% of the population.

2. Policy Context

• National Climate Change Plans:

  • The Program of General Measures on Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change (PMEGEMA) was developed in 2004 by the Climate Change Unit and includes mitigation and adaptation measures for key sectors such as agriculture, forestry, water resources, fisheries, and biodiversity.
  • Uruguay is the only LAC country to use dynamic downscaling in its National Communications, improving the accuracy of climate projections.

• National Communications:

  • The First National Communication (1997) established the National GHG Inventory (INGEI 1990) and identified initial mitigation and adaptation options.
  • The Second National Communication (2004) updated the GHG inventory to 2000 and proposed the creation of an entity responsible for managing climate change actions with public and private sector participation.

• Third National Communication: In preparation for 2009, it aims to define clear strategic actions for climate change.

3. Institutional Context

• Inter-Sectoral Coordination:

  • The Climate Change Unit (UCC), established in 1994, is the Designated National Authority (DNA) for climate change and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
  • The National Committee on Global Change (CNCG), established in 1992, coordinates national efforts on climate change and adaptation.
  • The Ecoplata Program, launched in 1997, focuses on strengthening institutions and public awareness related to Integrated Coastal Zone Management.

• National Climate Change Response System (2009):

  • Approved under the Ministry of Housing, Territorial Planning and Environment (MVOTMA), it coordinates public and private actions for climate change risk prevention, mitigation, and adaptation.
  • A Coordination Group consisting of various ministries, including the Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries (MGAP), is responsible for planning and implementing the system.

• Advisory Commission: Composed of experts from academia, research institutions, and the private sector, it advises on climate change policy development.

4. Impact of Agriculture on Climate Change – Mitigation Measures

• Forestry and Land Use Change:

  • Forest area: Accounts for 8% of total land and has seen significant growth from 200 km² in 1987 to 6,599 km² in 2000.
  • Carbon sequestration: Achieved 27.4 MtCO₂ from 1988 to 2000, with net deforestation rate being negative 5% due to reforestation efforts.
  • Key mitigation practices:
    • No-tillage (absorbs 3,300 ktCO₂ annually).
    • Artificial grasslands (increased from 1980 to 2000).
    • Afforestation and reforestation (estimated to offset 17% and 23% of total GHG emissions by 2030).
    • Doubling improved pastureland by 2020 could lead to additional carbon sequestration of 5.02 MtCO₂/year.

• Livestock:

  • Methane (CH₄) emissions: Over 92% from enteric fermentation, with cattle accounting for 88% and sheep for 11%.
  • N₂O emissions: 66% from grazing animal manure.
  • Mitigation measure: Improving animal diets through increased sown pastureland, estimated to reduce 24 MtCO₂e over the next 20 years.

• Carbon Trading:

  • Uruguay has no registered CDM projects in agriculture or afforestation/reforestation as of December 2009.
  • The BioCarbon Fund, a World Bank initiative, is exploring innovative approaches to include agricultural soil carbon in carbon trading.

5. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture – Adaptation Measures

• Adaptation strategies:

  • Water management: Incorporate climate change variables into hydraulic works and develop an effective national water policy.
  • Soil management: Promote sustainable practices, including no-tillage techniques, which have contributed to 1.8 million tons of carbon sequestration annually.
  • Coastal management: Establish integrated coastal area management and systematic monitoring systems for surge and beach profiles.

• Adaptive capacity:

  • The agricultural sector is vulnerable to seasonal variability and precipitation changes.
  • Soil degradation affects 4.3% of arable land, with 3.07% being severely degraded.
  • Social interventions include the development of insurance instruments to protect against climate-related risks.

Conclusion

Uruguay has a significant agricultural sector that is both a major contributor to GHG emissions and a key driver of its economy. The country has implemented various mitigation and adaptation measures to address the challenges posed by climate change, including reforestation, improved soil management, and the development of a comprehensive National Climate Change Response System. Despite these efforts, carbon trading opportunities in agriculture remain unexplored, and the country continues to work on enhancing its institutional capacity and policy frameworks to better respond to climate change.