2009年-世界发展银行全球_Argentina_-_Country_Note_on_Climate_Change_Aspects_in_Agriculture_12页_3mb

Summary of Argentina's Climate Change and Agriculture Context

Core Content

Argentina is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), with agriculture (including land use change and forestry) being the largest source of emissions, accounting for 35% of total GHG emissions. Despite this, agriculture contributes less than 6% to the country's GDP and represents 55% of its export base. The country has demonstrated a strong commitment to addressing climate change, having submitted two National Communications to the UNFCCC, which is rare among developing countries.

Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly in the Northern and Northeastern parts of the country, where increased temperatures and reduced precipitation could lead to desertification. The country has identified several adaptation strategies, including improved irrigation, changes in planting and harvesting schedules, and the use of climate-sensitive insurance to mitigate risks.

Main Views

Agriculture's Role in Emissions and Economy

• Emissions Contribution: Agriculture contributes 35% of GHG emissions, with land use change and forestry accounting for 16%.
• Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions: Agriculture is responsible for 69.7% of total methane emissions (mainly from enteric fermentation) and 96.8% of total nitrous oxide emissions (mainly from agricultural land use).
• Economic Contribution: Agriculture contributes less than 6% to GDP but forms 55% of the export base, indicating its strategic importance to the economy.

Climate Projections

• Temperature Increase: A 1°C increase is expected across the country by 2020/2040, with more pronounced effects in the North.
• Precipitation Changes: Precipitation is projected to increase in the central regions and decrease in the Andes, Northeastern Patagonia, and Comahue.
• Sea Level Rise: Coastal erosion is expected in the Southern part of Patagonia due to rising sea levels.

Historical Climate Impacts

• Flood and Storm Damage: Between 1999-2008, floods and storms caused significant economic and human losses, averaging 0.23% of GDP.
• Drought Impact: The 2003 drought event caused damages of US$120 million.

Key Information

Policy Context

• National Communications: Argentina has submitted two National Communications to the UNFCCC, showing its commitment to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
• National Program for Climate Change Impacts: This program aims to understand vulnerability and develop adaptation measures.
• Civic Participation and Education: The Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development has launched initiatives to educate the public and promote climate change awareness.

Institutional Context

• Inter-Sectoral Coordination: The Argentine Office for the Clean Development Mechanism (OAMDL) coordinates climate change activities across sectors.
• Agricultural Institutions:
  • Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food (SAGPyA): Oversees climate change initiatives in agriculture and has developed agro-climatic risk maps.
  • National Weather Service (SMN): Provides weather information and supports climate-sensitive agriculture.
  • Climate and Water Institute (INTACyA): Offers weather forecasts and supports the agricultural sector.
  • Sea and Atmosphere Research Center (CIMA): Conducts research on extreme weather and climate sensitivity.
  • Forest Evaluation System Management Unit (UMSEF): Monitors native forests and detects deforestation.

Mitigation Measures

• Land Use and Forestry: Argentina has an average annual net deforestation rate of 0.4% (down from 0.8% in 2002). However, deforestation rates in the Chaco ecosystem may increase due to agricultural expansion.
• Forest Plantations: These sequester an average of 10t/hectare annually and are mainly located in Misiones, Corrientes, and Buenos Aires.
• CDM Projects: Argentina has only 2 registered CDM projects in the agricultural sector, both focused on methane reduction from livestock. There are no projects in the "afforestation and reforestation" category.
• Carbon Trading: The Argentine Carbon Fund (FAC) has over 70 projects, with 4% in agriculture. The World Bank's BioCarbon Fund supports carbon sequestration and conservation in forests and agro-ecosystems.

Adaptation Measures

• Land Management: Adaptation strategies include replacing winter crops with summer ones, revising fire control systems, introducing new crop varieties, adapting seed banks to future climate conditions, and increasing irrigation.
• Water Use: Only 5% of arable land is irrigated, and the irrigation system is inefficient (less than 40% efficiency). There is a need to improve groundwater management and replace traditional irrigation systems with more efficient pressurized systems.

Vulnerability Indicators

• Employment in Agriculture: Represents a significant portion of total employment.
• Rainfed Cropland: A large percentage of cropland is rainfed, making it more vulnerable to climate variability.
• Water Usage: Agriculture uses a large share of fresh water, indicating high water dependency.
• Soil Degradation: A significant portion of land is affected by soil degradation.
• Risk of Extreme Weather Events: The country experiences a high risk of extreme weather events, which can impact agricultural productivity.

Conclusion

Argentina faces significant challenges from climate change, particularly in its agricultural sector. While the country has made strides in policy development and institutional coordination, the contribution of agriculture to GHG emissions remains substantial. The government has taken steps to address both mitigation and adaptation, but the lack of sufficient CDM projects in the agricultural sector highlights a gap in leveraging carbon trading for climate action. Improving irrigation efficiency, enhancing climate-sensitive insurance, and promoting sustainable land use are key adaptation strategies. The country's vulnerability to climate change is evident, and its response must continue to evolve to ensure resilience in the agricultural sector.