20150402-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_24页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - April 2, 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of financial results and analysis for several companies across China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, along with key indices, corporate events, and investment recommendations. It also includes detailed financial metrics, stock performance data, and analyst insights.

Main Points and Key Information

China

Baoxin Auto Group (1293 HK)
- 2014 results missed expectations due to a 30% year-over-year decline in net profit.
- The decline was attributed to slower-than-expected growth in new car sales and after-sales revenue, as well as a higher expense ratio.
- Management expects recovery in 2015, driven by used-car sales, commission income, and parallel imports.
- Maintained as a BUY with a revised target price of HK$4.60 (down from HK$5.70).
- EPS for 2015 and 2016 was cut by 18–21%, and 2017 net profit forecast is Rmb1.276 billion.
- Financial metrics show a decline in net margin and EBITDA margin, but improved operating profit.
- Valuation: Traded at 8.2x 2015F PE, below the historical mean of 15x.
- Corporate Events: Upcoming analyst presentations and a corporate roadshow in April 2015.
Chaowei Power (951 HK)
- 2014 reported a net loss of Rmb29 million due to a sharp decline in lead-acid battery prices.
- Downgraded from BUY to SELL, with a revised target price of HK$2.70 (down from HK$5.30).
- Plans to set up 10,000 sales outlets in 2015 pose execution and financial risks.
- EPS forecasts for 2015 and 2016 were cut by over 60%.
- Valuation: Traded at 13.8x 2015F PE, above the historical mean of 9x.
- Corporate Events: Upcoming roadshow in April 2015.

Indonesia

Malindo Feedmill (MAIN IJ)
- 2014 reported a net loss of Rp85 billion, below expectations.
- Maintained as a BUY with a revised target price of Rp2,300 (+43.8% upside).
- 2015 marketing sales target set at Rp5.5 trillion.
- Valuation: Traded at 11.5x 2014 PE and 8.2x 2015F PE.
Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ)
- 2014 reported a net profit of Rp1.4 trillion, a 27% year-over-year increase and 51% quarter-over-quarter increase, above expectations.
- Maintained as a BUY with a target price of Rp2,040.
- 2015 marketing sales target of Rp5.5 trillion.

Malaysia

Genting Plantations (GENP MK)
- Becoming an integrated player with upstream business as the largest earnings contributor.
- Maintained as a HOLD with a target price of RM10.10.

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC SP)
- Positive re-rating with a BUY recommendation.
- Target price of S$12.65.

Thailand

Hemaraj Land and Development (HEMRAJ TB)
- Maintained as a HOLD with a target price of Bt4.55.
- WHA will proceed with asset divestment plan after taking control.
- Potential special dividend in 2015.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1 Day %	1 Week %	1 Month %	YTD %
DJIA	17698.2	(0.4)	(0.1)	(2.4)	(0.7)
S&P 500	2059.7	(0.4)	(0.1)	(2.1)	0.0
FTSE 100	6809.5	0.5	(2.6)	(2.0)	3.7
AS30	5832.9	(0.5)	(1.8)	(1.6)	8.2
CSI 300	4123.9	1.8	4.7	14.5	16.7
FSSTI	3447.0	0.0	0.8	1.3	2.4
HSI	25082.8	0.7	2.3	0.8	6.3
JCI	5466.9	(0.9)	1.1	(0.2)	4.6
KLCI	1826.3	(0.2)	0.4	0.5	3.7
KOSPI	2028.5	(0.6)	(0.7)	1.6	5.9
Nikkei 225	19034.8	(0.9)	(3.6)	1.1	9.1
SET	1525.6	1.3	0.8	(3.6)	1.9
TWSE	9507.7	(0.8)	(1.7)	(1.0)	2.2
BDI	596	(1.0)	(0.3)	10.4	(23.8)
CPO (RM/ml)	2179	0.8	(0.8)	(5.3)	(5.2)
Nymex Crude	50	(1.1)	(3.7)	(0.1)	(7.0)

Top Picks

Ticker	CP (Icy)	TP (Icy)	Pot. +/-
Sunac China	6.72	7.97	18.6
ICBC	5.76	6.80	18.1
Bank Negara	7,250.00	7,500.00	3.4
Genting Msia	4.14	4.47	8.0
DBS	20.39	23.55	15.5
Pacific Radiance	0.65	1.00	53.8
Krung Thai Bank	22.90	29.00	26.6
Sino Thai Engr	21.60	30.25	40.0
SELL	UMWH Holdings	10.84	10.00

Key Assumptions

Indicator	2014	2015F	2016F
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	65	70
CPO (US$/ml)	722	765	788
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Begin	Close
China Railway Sector Analyst Presentation	Kuala Lumpur	2 Apr	3 Apr
China Resources Gas Luncheon	Hong Kong	2 Apr	2 Apr
Thailand Property Sector Analyst Presentation	Singapore	7 Apr	7 Apr
Thailand Property Sector Analyst Presentation	Kuala Lumpur	8 Apr	8 Apr
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Corporate Roadshow	Singapore	2 Apr	2 Apr
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Corporate Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	3 Apr	3 Apr
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Corporate Roadshow	Hong Kong	16 Apr	17 Apr
Amata Corporation Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	9 Apr	9 Apr
Amata Corporation Roadshow	Singapore	10 Apr	10 Apr
ENN Energy Corporate Roadshow	Toronto	13 Apr	14 Apr
PT Logindo Luncheon	Singapore	17 Apr	17 Apr

Company Descriptions

Baoxin Auto Group (1293 HK): An owner operator of luxury automobile dealerships in China, focusing on luxury and ultra-luxury brands. Operates 4S dealership stores, showrooms, and repair centres.
Chaowei Power (951 HK): Manufacturer and distributor of lead-acid batteries used in electric bikes.

Stock Data

Company	GICS Sector	Bloomberg Ticker	Shares Issued (m)	Market Cap (HK$m)	Market Cap (US$m)	3-Month Avg Daily Turnover (US$m)
Baoxin Auto Group	Automobile	1293 HK	2,557	10,229	1,311	1.2
Chaowei Power	Industrial	951 HK	1,005	4,102	529	0.5

Analyst

Ken Lee
- Contact: +852 2236 6760
- Email: ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk

Summary of Key Financials

Metric	2014 (Rmbm)	2015F (Rmbm)	2016F (Rmbm)	2017F (Rmbm)
Net turnover	30,723	32,478	34,386	36,333
EBITDA	1,941	2,267	2,451	2,802
Operating profit	1,622	1,909	2,059	2,380
Net profit (rep./act.)	707	1,000	1,126	1,276
Net profit (adj.)	711	1,000	1,126	1,276
EPS (fen)	27.8	39.1	44.0	49.9
PE (x)	11.5	8.2	7.3	6.4
P/B (x)	2.0	1.6	1.4	1.2
EV/EBITDA (x)	5.6	4.8	4.4	3.9
Net margin (%)	2.3	3.1	3.3	3.5
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%)	68.5	32.3	45.5	19.4
Interest cover (x)	2.8	3.3	3.5	3.4
ROE (%)	14.6	18.1	17.6	17.5

Summary of Risks and Earnings Revisions

Baoxin Auto Group (1293 HK):
- Earnings recovery in 2015 expected due to improved car sales margin and after-sales revenue growth.
- Lower expense ratio expected due to reduced store openings and lower capex.
- Cut 2015–16 EPS by 18–21%.
- Downgraded target price from HK$5.70 to HK$4.60.
Chaowei Power (951 HK):
- Earnings downgrade due to sustained price pressure and execution risks.
- Cut 2015–16 net profit forecasts by over 60%.
- Downgraded to SELL due to poor valuation and weak outlook.

Conclusion

This summary highlights the performance of key companies in the region, their financial results, and the analyst's recommendations. Baoxin Auto Group is expected to recover in 2015, while Chaowei Power faces significant challenges due to falling battery prices and expansion risks. The document also includes insights on market indices and upcoming corporate events.

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