20240318-华创证券-_宏观专题_更新_换新_系列三_财政七句话_可能多少钱__12页_1mb

The report analyzes the fiscal support for China's "Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In Action Plan" under the broader policy framework. Key points:

• Fiscal support scale is unclear, with no specific numbers provided, but seven phrases from the policy correspond to specific fiscal funds.
• For equipment renewal and circular economy utilization, central budget investment is expected to provide an incremental fund ranging from tens of billions to 1,000 billion yuan.
• For car trade-ins, energy-saving subsidy funds are projected to increase by less than 300 billion yuan.
• For home appliance trade-ins, commercial services funds could see an incremental boost of 0 to 300 billion yuan, based on historical comparisons.
• Other fiscal measures, such as老旧营运车船更新补贴 or agricultural machinery subsidies, have smaller scale estimates, but the report highlights risks of actual execution deviating from planned figures due to potential overestimation or policy changes.

Overall, the analysis suggests varied scales of support across different sectors, with most estimates capped below 300 billion yuan for consumer-related trade-ins, affecting areas like sustainable development and economic stimulation.