2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ghana_First_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Waiver_and_Modifications_of_Performance_Criteria_101页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 15/245: Ghana

Core Content

This document outlines the IMF's First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Ghana, which was approved on April 3, 2015. The review concluded with the approval of a US$116.6 million disbursement, bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to US$233.1 million. The review also included waivers for non-observance of performance criteria related to gross credit to government and external arrears, given their minor and temporary nature and the corrective actions taken by the authorities.

Main Views

1. Program Performance

• The overall fiscal performance was better than projected through end-April 2015.
• The cash deficit was 2% of GDP, against a projection of 2.6%.
• The government met all but one performance criteria and largely implemented structural benchmarks, though some were delayed.
• Gross credit to government was slightly exceeded due to a delay in transferring resources between accounts.
• Inflation and social protection spending were not fully met, with inflation slightly above target and some social spending delayed.

2. Economic Outlook and Risks

• The economic outlook remains challenging, with risks tilted to the downside.
• Growth is expected to slow in 2015 due to the ongoing electricity crisis and weak commodity prices.
• A rebound is anticipated in 2016–2017 with normalized electricity provision and increased hydrocarbon production.
• Inflation is projected to decline in the second half of 2015 as the Cedi stabilized after a strong appreciation in July.
• Current account deficit is expected to narrow, though it remains elevated.
• Non-oil commodity exports are weak, and non-oil imports have rebounded, adding pressure on the foreign exchange market.
• The 2017 ruling of the International Tribunal on oil-related operations in the disputed area between Ghana and Ivory Coast could have long-term implications on oil production.

3. Fiscal and Debt Management Policies

• The government is committed to fiscal consolidation, aiming for a 3.5% of GDP improvement in the cash primary balance for 2015.
• Expenditure restraint is a key policy, with a net hiring freeze in the public sector, except for education and health.
• The liberalization of petroleum prices in July 2015 is expected to eliminate fuel subsidies and reduce the risk of new arrears.
• The government plans to use the BoG dividend to cover flood damage and clear arrears with bulk oil importers (BDCs).
• The 2015 fiscal deficit is targeted at 7.3% of GDP, supported by oil revenues and a 50% saving of additional oil proceeds.
• The medium-term fiscal consolidation target remains at 3.75% of GDP by the end of the program.

4. Monetary Policy and Financial Sector Stability

• Monetary policy has been tight to bring inflation down, with the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) increased to 24% by August 2015.
• The introduction of new liquidity instruments is expected to improve monetary policy transmission and the effectiveness of the inflation targeting framework.
• The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has reduced its holdings of T-bills, and domestic financing has become more short-term-oriented, raising roll-over risks.
• The interbank rate remains above the MPR despite the rate hike, and real interest rates have remained broadly stable.
• Domestic liquidity conditions are tight, and the government plans to issue GH¢ 2.0 billion in net domestic financing for 2015, compared to GH¢ 7.3 billion in 2014.

5. Structural Reforms and Growth Policies

• Structural reforms are recommended to strengthen expenditure control and enhance fiscal space for social protection.
• The government is advised to continue its fiscal consolidation efforts, including maintaining a net hiring freeze, controlling wage bill, and avoiding new arrears.
• Fiscal space should be used to enhance social protection programs to mitigate the impact of consolidation on the poor.
• The government should identify the full cost of elections and provision for it in the 2016 budget to avoid fiscal overruns.
• Wage negotiations should align with the medium-term wage bill envelope to ensure fiscal sustainability.

6. Debt Management Strategy

• The financing mix for 2015 is expected to be more externally oriented, with program grants and loans disbursements of close to US$500 million.
• The planned Eurobond issuance of US$1.5 billion is expected to ease domestic debt market pressures and reduce roll-over risks.
• The government plans to issue 2-year notes to non-resident investors, expanding access to international markets.
• The BoG is advised not to buy back the 2017 Eurobond at this stage due to tight domestic liquidity and to use the proceeds for rebuilding international reserves and reducing domestic financing pressure.

Key Information

• Total disbursements under the ECF arrangement: SDR 166.05 million (about US$233.1 million).
• GDP-based targets:
  • 2015 fiscal deficit: 7.3% of GDP.
  • 2015 primary fiscal balance: Surplus of about 1% of GDP.
  • Medium-term fiscal consolidation: 3.75% of GDP by program-end.
• Non-oil tax revenue: Expected to meet the budget target.
• Oil revenue: Expected to continue overperforming due to higher-than-programmed prices.
• BoG dividend: Expected to add to non-tax revenues and be used to address flood damage and arrears.
• Domestic financing: Expected to be GH¢ 2.0 billion in 2015, down from GH¢ 7.3 billion in 2014.
• External financing: Includes program grants and loans disbursements of US$500 million and the Eurobond issuance of US$1.5 billion.
• Arrears clearance: The government is on track to clear domestic arrears as planned, with no new arrears accumulated.
• Debt maturity: The weighted average time to maturity of domestic marketable debt is 10 months.
• Exchange rate: The Cedi depreciated by 23% in the first half of 2015 but appreciated significantly in July, easing inflationary pressures.
• Inflation: Headline inflation reached 17.1% in June 2015, but core inflation has shown a declining trend.
• IMF recommendations: The staff supports the government's request for waivers and modifications of performance criteria, including higher limits on external non-concessional borrowing.

Conclusion

The IMF review of Ghana's ECF program concluded that the implementation has been broadly satisfactory, and the disbursement of US$116.6 million is approved. The government is advised to continue fiscal consolidation, improve monetary policy transmission, and implement structural reforms to ensure debt sustainability and economic recovery. The financing mix will be externally oriented in the short term, with a gradual shift back to domestic financing in the medium term. The outlook remains challenging, with risks tilted to the downside, and the program is expected to help restore macroeconomic stability and foster high growth and job creation.