20241202-建信期货-豆粕年报_大周期偏熊_震幅预期增大_21页_1mb

The global soybean market has entered a bear cycle due to a significant increase in supply and a widening of the trade deficit. In 2024, the U.S. soybean planting area warmed up, and production increased by about 72%, benefiting from favorable weather during the growing season. South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, is expected to continue increasing production due to favorable planting conditions and weather patterns. Global inventory levels have surged, dragging the market into bearish territory, with the current stocks-to-use ratio at the second-highest level in recent years.

The United States has shifted to a net soybean exporter in terms of value-added trade due to rising productivity, while China remains the world's largest importer of soybeans, with imports increasing significantly in 2024. The high import of soybeans in China has amplified the impact of global supply dynamics on Chinese domestic prices. The likelihood of establishing a long-term trade surplus in the U.S.-China soybean relationship remains distant as China continues to expand its import base and explore alternative sources.

Domestic policy interventions, such as support prices for edible oil crops and subsidies for animal feed, play a crucial role in buffering the impact of global oversupply on China's domestic market. However, ongoing uncertainties in international trade and geopolitical developments continue to introduce volatility into soybean markets.