20140506-Maybank_KERPL-Will_rise_above_the_rubble_17页_673kb

报告摘要

Siam Cement Summary

Core Content

Siam Cement Group (SCC) is a leading industrial producer in Thailand and the ASEAN region, with a diversified revenue and earnings base across cement/building materials (ConsMat), petrochemicals (Petchems), and paper. Despite a 5% YoY drop in 1Q14 net profit, the company remains a top pick in the Thai ConsMat sector due to its expansion plans and strategic acquisitions.

Key Financials

Share Price: THB434.00
Market Cap (USD): 16.1B
Target Price (THB): 506.00 (+17%)
ADTV (USD): 19M
1Q14 Net Profit: THB8.381bn
Core Net Profit (2014E): THB41,473m
Core EPS (2014E): THB34.56
Core EPS Growth (2014E): 13.6%
Net Dividend Yield (2014E): 4.0%
ROAE (2014E): 20.6%
ROAA (2014E): 9.1%
Net Debt/Equity (2014E): 60.2%
Core P/E (2014E): 12.6
P/BV (2014E): 2.8

1Q14 Performance

Net Profit: Down 5% YoY, 12% below forecast on FX-adjusted basis.
EBITDA: Up 21% YoY, 12-13% below forecast.
Sales: 1% below forecast.
Gross Profit: Well inline with forecast.
Net Other Income: Down 5% YoY, significantly below expectations.
Profit from OCI: Up 13% YoY to THB8bn, driven by actuarial losses and FX adjustments.

Earnings Revision

Earnings Downgrade: 3-6% for 2014-2016, mainly due to lower other income and taxation.
Revised Net Profit: THB41,473m (2014E), THB45,607m (2015E), THB52,941m (2016E).
Revised EBITDA: THB63,567m (2014E), THB68,521m (2015E), THB75,091m (2016E).
New Target Price: THB506.00, based on DCF, down from THB550.

Valuation Metrics

Valuation Method: Shifted from LTM PBV to DCF.
DCF Assumptions:
- WACC: 8.79%
- Terminal Growth: 3%
DCF Value: THB506 per share.
PE Band: SCC is trading near its LTM, indicating potential undervaluation.
PBV Band: Also near LTM, suggesting value opportunity.

Corporate Strategy

Strategic Business Units (SBUs): Cement/Building Materials, Petrochemicals, Paper.
Growth Drivers: Capacity expansion, acquisitions, and joint ventures.
Geographic Expansion: Focus on ASEAN, including Cambodia, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Laos.
Future Capacity: Expected to increase output by 15% to 30.1mn tons if expansion is completed.

Key Acquisitions and JVs

Prime Group (Vietnam): Acquired in 2013, boosting ceramic tile capacity by 53%.
Florim Ceramiche SpA (Italy): 33% equity stake in a JV producing high-end ceramic tiles, starting in 2015.
Potential Targets: Diamond Rood Tile and Dynasty Ceramic (DCC), with preference for DCC due to its efficiency and profitability.

Industry Outlook

ConsMat Sector: Mixed outlook with strong overseas demand, especially in ASEAN.
Thailand Cement Demand: Expected to grow 5% in 2014, down from 10.9% in 2013.
Commercial Sector: Positive outlook with growth of 14% YoY.
Residential & Infrastructure: Uncertain, with delayed project launches and weak government support.
Petchem Sector: Positive outlook due to demand exceeding supply.
Paper Sector: Mixed, with strength in packaging and restructuring efforts to move towards high-value products.

Antitrust Considerations

Market Share: SCC's high market share raises antitrust concerns, but Thai regulations are not strictly enforced.
AEC Impact: Expected to become more complex post-2015, hence the need for proactive acquisitions.

Strategic Growth

Capex and Acquisitions: THB25bn in capex and THB25bn in acquisitions planned for 2014-2018.
Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR): Expected to increase from 4% to 5.1% by 2016.
ROA and ROE: ROA is expected to rise from 9.1% to 10.4%, while ROE remains flat at 20.6%.

Summary of Key Points

SCC's 1Q14 results were disappointing, leading to a 3-6% earnings downgrade.
Despite this, SCC's diversified operations and regional expansion keep it as a top pick.
The company's strategy includes capacity expansion, acquisitions, and joint ventures.
DCF valuation is now the preferred method, with a new target price of THB506.
Antitrust issues are a concern, but likely manageable due to Thailand's regulatory environment.
SCC is expected to outperform local peers due to its broader geographic reach and diversified revenue streams.

展开完整摘要