20140122-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_694kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - 22 January 2014

Core Content Overview

The document provides a summary of the financial performance and outlook for various stocks in the Philippines, with a focus on the property and telecom sectors. It includes market data, analyst insights, and valuation models for selected companies.

Key Market Indicators

Stock	Price (PHP)	% Change	Turnover (PHPm)
PSEi	6,139.86	2.00	8,288.54
PLDT ADR (USD)	61.42	1.96	-
PLDT ADR (PHP)	2,776.18	2.14	-
Ave interbank rate	-	-	2.06
PHP/USD rate	-	-	45.26

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo – Head of Research / Economist
Laura Dy-Liacco, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan, Ramon Adviento – Analysts

Top Idea: Property Sector

Megaworld Corporation (MEG)

Current Price: PHP3.60
Target Price: PHP4.20
Upside Potential: 16%
Key Insight: MEG is a leader in office space rentals in the Philippines due to its aggressive expansion and focus on the BPO industry.
Recurring Income: Office rentals are expected to be a significant revenue driver in the next two years.
Growth Projections:
- Office leasable area to increase by 84,966sqm in 2014F (16.7% growth).
- Office revenue to rise by 15.9% to PHP4.08b in 2014F.
- Expected to increase by 142,796sqm in 2015, leading to an 81% growth in office rental revenue to PHP7.8b by 2016.
Occupancy Rate: MEG is expected to maintain a high occupancy rate of 98% for its office projects.
Valuation:
- NAV-based target price of PHP4.20.
- NAVPS estimated at PHP5.27.
- A 20% conglomerate discount applied to arrive at the target price.

Market Talk

Telecom Sector

PLDT is set to issue up to PHP15b in retail bonds, with a base of PHP10b and an option to upsize by PHP5b.
The bonds will be issued in 7-year and 10-year tranches with interest rates estimated between 5.1704% to 5.5704% and 5.2396% to 5.7396%, respectively.
The proceeds will be used for capital expenditure and possible refinancing.

Banking Sector

Moody's Outlook: Positive for the Philippine banking system, with strong profitability and liquidity.
UBP: Plans to add 15 to 20 more branches in 2014, increasing its total branch count to 250.
Other Banks: Include BDO, BPI, CHIB, EW, MBT, PNB, RCB, RRHI, and CIC with varying target prices and upside potential.

Valuation Table (as of 22 January 2014)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	77.05	88.00	14	13,953	4.46	17.4	17.3	-	-	42.29	1.8	-	1.2	11.5
BPI	88.90	96.00	8	16,291	4.58	27.1	19.4	2.30	2.6	27.30	3.3	-	1.8	17.5
CHIB	59.00	57.75	-2	5,049	3.54	0.8	16.7	1.20	2.0	29.46	2.0	-	1.7	12.5
EW	24.45	31.80	30	1,750	0.87	14.5	26.0	0.62	2.7	6.74	3.4	46.2	7.0	13.1
MBT	79.30	96.00	21	11,520	4.20	8.7	18.9	2.90	12.4	7.72	7.5	-	9.4	29.8
PNB	83.00	111.00	34	4,652	4.26	9.1	12.9	-	-	12.93	1.8	-	9.4	29.8
RCB	45.00	60.00	33	5,806	5.09	14.3	12.8	2.90	16.1	12.93	1.8	-	9.4	29.8
RRHI	58.00	77.50	34	1,070	1.19	121.4	48.8	-	-	7.72	7.5	-	5.3	16.8
DMPL	22.60	35.20	56	1,355	0.87	14.5	26.0	0.62	2.7	6.74	3.4	46.2	7.0	13.1
ALI	27.50	37.80	37	9,038	0.69	26.5	39.7	0.22	1.3	142.91	1.6	-	7.4	15.4
FLI	1.35	2.20	63	3,431	0.14	16.7	8.8	0.05	3.7	15.34	1.6	-	7.0	13.3
VLL	5.23	6.70	28	4,376	0.51	22.3	12.8	0.12	2.7	142.91	1.6	-	7.4	15.4
MEG	3.60	4.20	17	6,957	0.23	-0.6	15.4	0.02	0.7	2.66	1.4	-	15.2	14.5

Key Points

MEG is expected to significantly expand its office space, driven by the growing BPO industry.
The company is already the top office landlord in the Philippines.
The valuation of MEG is based on a NAV approach with a 20% discount.
The BPO industry is projected to grow at a 19% CAGR in 2012-2016, with the second wave of expansion expected to bring in USD25b in revenue and 1.3m direct and 3.2m indirect jobs.
The Philippines is an attractive location for BPOs due to low rental rates and a large workforce.
Other stocks in the banking and property sectors are also discussed, with varying target prices and outlooks.

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