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报告摘要

Megaworld Corp (MEG PM) Summary

Core Content

Company Overview: Megaworld Corp (MEG PM) is a real estate company based in the Philippines, with a share price of PHP4.63 and a target price of PHP5.29, representing a 14% increase.
Market Capitalization: The company has a market cap of PHP148.0B and an average daily turnover of USD5.7M.
Shareholder Structure: The major shareholders include Alliance Global Group, Inc. (70.0%), Megaworld Corp. (1.9%), and Dimensional Fund Advisors LP (1.3%).
Investment Recommendation: The rating has been upgraded to BUY from HOLD, with a revised target price of PHP5.29.

Key Developments

GERI Acquisition: Megaworld Corp is acquiring its parent company, Alliance Global Inc's 49.2% stake in Global-Estate Resorts Inc (GERI), which will expand its land bank from 285 hectares to over 3,900 hectares.
Land Bank Expansion: The new land bank includes more provincial areas, enabling the company to launch more ambitious mixed-use projects.
Financial Capabilities: MEG has a strong net cash position estimated at PHP10B, supporting its growth plans.

Financial Highlights

Revenue Growth: Revenue is projected to grow from PHP26,964.9M (FY12A) to PHP40,788.8M (FY16E), with an average annual growth rate of around 10%.
EBITDA Growth: EBITDA is expected to increase from PHP7,868.3M (FY12A) to PHP19,067.8M (FY16E), showing a strong upward trend.
Core Net Profit: Core net profit is forecasted to rise from PHP7,520.3M (FY12A) to PHP15,973.1M (FY16E), with a growth rate of approximately 18% in FY14E.
Core FDEPS Growth: Core FDEPS is expected to grow from 0.27 in FY12A to 0.59 in FY16E, indicating a strong improvement in earnings per share.

Valuation Metrics

Core FD P/E: The Core FD P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 17.1 (FY12A) to 7.8 (FY16E), showing increasing value.
P/BV: The P/BV ratio is projected to decline from 1.6 (FY12A) to 1.0 (FY16E), suggesting a potential undervaluation.
EV/EBITDA: The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 8.3 (FY12A) to 5.7 (FY16E), indicating a better valuation.
Net Debt/Equity: The company is in a net cash position, suggesting a strong balance sheet.

NAV-Based Valuation

New NAV: The company's NAV is revised to PHP211,312M from PHP168,473M, reflecting the inclusion of GERI's land bank.
NAV per Share: The NAV per share increases from PHP5.27 to PHP6.61, indicating a more valuable asset base.
Target Price: With a 20% discount, the target price is set at PHP5.29, offering a 14.3% upside potential.

Earnings Performance

FY2013 Earnings: Net profit rose 21.9% YoY to PHP9.04B, driven by higher real estate sales and rental income.
Real Estate Sales: Real estate sales contributed 71% of total revenue in FY2013, with key developments in Metro Manila boosting performance.
Rental Income: Rental income increased to PHP6B in FY2013, with a 21% rise attributed to higher escalation rates and expanded GLA.

Future Projections

2014 Earnings: Expected to grow by 12.7% to PHP10.14B, with real estate sales projected to increase by 11.8%.
Rental Income Growth: Rental income is expected to rise to PHP6.6B in 2014, with further growth anticipated to PHP10.6B in 2017.
Project Pipeline: 15 new projects are expected to be launched in 2014, contributing to revenue growth.

Key Figures and Assumptions

GERI NAV: Estimated at PHP47.6B, based on the low end of the market price range and 50% efficiency rate.
Land Bank: Includes 1,860 hectares, with MEG's 25% stake valued at PHP12,230M and the group's 75% stake at PHP35,653M.
Net Cash: Estimated at PHP10B, supporting the company's growth initiatives and acquisitions.

Conclusion

The acquisition of GERI significantly enhances Megaworld Corp's land bank and financial position, supporting its growth trajectory and increasing its valuation. The upgraded rating to BUY reflects the positive outlook based on the expanded land bank, strong financials, and projected earnings growth. The target price of PHP5.29 is based on a conservative NAV estimate and a 20% discount, offering a 14.3% upside potential.

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