20140327-Maybank_KERPL-Excellent_delivery_11页_234kb

报告摘要

Sinotrans Summary

Core Content

Sinotrans (598 HK) is a Hong Kong-based transport company with a share price of HKD3.61 and a market capitalization of HKD15.3B. The company is projected to have a target price of HKD4.55, representing a 26% increase from the current price. The analysts at Maybank Kim Eng maintain a "BUY" rating for the company, supported by strong earnings growth and improving financial metrics.

Main Points

Earnings Growth: Sinotrans reported a 30.1% YoY increase in FY13 earnings to CNY844.5m, exceeding both the forecast and the consensus. The core net profit reached CNY649.1m in FY13, and the company is projected to maintain a net cash position in FY14.
Segment Performance: All business segments except storage/terminals outperformed the forecast. Freight forwarding growth reached 25.9%, with a 74% increase in profit from 3PL. Marine transportation losses narrowed by 95% YoY and 92% HoH, showing significant improvement.
Divestment of Marine Transportation: The company confirmed the divestment of its marine transportation business, which is expected to reduce earnings volatility and improve earnings quality. The disposal is projected to generate a CNY60m gain.
Financial Health: Sinotrans remained financially solid with a net cash balance of CNY534m at the end of FY13. Corporate expenses decreased by 23.1% YoY, and net finance costs were flat.
Valuation: The company is expected to trade at 11.4x core P/E and 1.0x P/B for FY14. The 12-month forward sum-of-the-parts target price is HKD4.55, with a 6.3% and 3.2% earnings upgrade for FY14 and FY15, respectively.
Growth Outlook: The 3PL segment is expected to grow at a 25% CAGR over the next three years, driven by the e-commerce boom and increased outsourcing demand. The company may consider separately disclosing 3PL as a reporting segment in FY14, which could positively impact its valuation.
Dividend Yield: The net dividend yield is projected to increase from 2.3% in FY14 to 3.2% in FY16. The payout ratio is at 25% in FY13, slightly below the forecast of 30%.
Peer Comparison: Sinotrans' valuation is compared to logistics peers, and its P/E and P/B multiples are considered undemanding relative to its peers.
Future Outlook: The company is expected to achieve record earnings and a higher recurring ROE of 9.1% in FY14, supported by the disposal gains and improved performance in other segments.

Key Information

Earnings Drivers: Solid 3PL growth, higher freight forwarding margin, lower finance costs, and improving JCEs.
Divestment Impact: Expected to remove earnings volatility and boost earnings quality.
Financial Position: Net cash position, reduced corporate expenses, and flat net finance costs.
Valuation Metrics: 11.4x core P/E and 1.0x P/B for FY14.
Segment Growth: 3PL is projected to grow at a 25% CAGR.
Dividend Trends: Net dividend yield is expected to increase to 3.2% in FY16.
ROE: Recurring ROE is projected to reach 9.1% in FY14.
Peer Comparison: Undemanding valuation relative to logistics peers.

Summary Table

Metric	FY13 Actual	FY14 Forecast	FY15 Forecast	FY16 Forecast
Revenue (CNY m)	47,930.0	49,332.5	50,728.3	53,865.8
EBITDA (CNY m)	1,532.7	1,828.7	2,090.8	2,351.9
Core Net Profit (CNY m)	844.5	1,076.4	1,347.5	1,574.2
Core EPS (CNY)	0.20	0.25	0.32	0.37
Net DPS (CNY)	0.05	0.07	0.08	0.09
Core P/E (x)	14.5	11.4	9.1	7.8
P/BV (x)	1.1	1.0	1.0	0.9
Net Dividend Yield (%)	1.7	2.3	2.7	3.2
ROAE (%)	6.5	7.7	8.8	9.3
ROAA (%)	2.9	3.6	4.4	5.1
EV/EBITDA (x)	7.6	7.7	6.8	6.1
Net Debt/Equity (%)	Net Cash	Net Cash	Net Cash	Net Cash

Analyst Contact

Osbert TK Tang, CFA: Head of Research, (86) 21-5096 8370, osberttang@kimeng.com.hk
Tracy Liu: (86) 2150968367, tracyliu@kimeng.com.hk

Research Offices

Regional Head of Institutional Research: WONG Chew Hann, CA, (603) 2297 8686, wchewh@maybank-ib.com
Regional Head of Retail Research: ONG Seng Yeow, (65) 6432 1453, ongsengyeow@maybank-ke.com.sg
Institutional Product Manager: Alexander GARTHOFF, (852) 22680638, alexgarthoff@kimeng.com.hk
Chief Economist (Singapore | Malaysia): Suhaimi LIJAS, (603) 22978682, suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
Chief Economist, BII (Indonesia): JUNIMAN, (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682, Juniman@bankbji.com
Economist / Industry Analyst, Bill (Indonesia): Josua PARDEDE, (62) 21 29228888 ext 29695, JPardede@bankbii.com
Head of Research (Malaysia): WONG Chew Hann, CA, (603) 2297 8686, wchewh@maybank-ib.com
Head of Research (Hong Kong / China): Howard WONG, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Head of Research (India): Jigar SHAH, (91) 22 6623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Head of Research (Singapore): NG Wee Siang, (65) 6432 1467, ngweesiang@maybank-ke.com.sg

Conclusion

Sinotrans is expected to continue its strong performance in FY14, driven by 3PL growth and the divestment of the marine transportation segment. The company is projected to achieve record earnings and a higher ROE, supported by its solid financial position and the potential for asset injections. The current valuation is considered undemanding, and the analysts maintain a "BUY" rating with a target price of HKD4.55.

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