2018年-OPEC月度石油市场报告_September2018_104页_2mb

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - September 2018

Core Content

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 2018 provides an overview of global oil market dynamics, including price movements, supply and demand balances, economic developments, and market structures. The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and economic forecasts on the oil market.

Main Points

Crude Oil Price Movements

• In August 2018, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b.
• Year-to-date (y-t-d), the ORB was $19.82 higher than in 2017 at $69.55/b.
• Crude oil futures prices were down for the month, influenced by global trade tensions, a strong US dollar, and increased US stock levels.
• ICE Brent averaged $73.84/b, down $1.11 m-o-m, while NYMEX WTI dropped to $67.85/b, a decline of $2.74.
• DME Oman fell by 24¢ to $72.67/b.
• The Brent-WTI spread widened to $6.00/b in August.
• Net long positions in NYMEX WTI decreased to 351,481 lots, while those in ICE Brent increased to 389,066 lots.
• The long-to-short ratio for NYMEX WTI dropped to 17:1, while it rose to 11:1 for ICE Brent.

World Economy

• Global GDP growth is forecast at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019.
• OECD countries: US growth is at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019; Euro-zone growth is at 2.0% and 1.9% respectively.
• Japan's GDP growth was revised down to 1.1% for both years.
• Non-OECD countries: India's growth forecast increased to 7.6% for 2018, while China remains at 6.6% and 6.2% for 2018 and 2019 respectively.
• Brazil's growth is revised to 1.2% in 2018 and expected to rebound to 2.0% in 2019.
• Russia's growth is revised to 1.6% and 1.7% for 2018 and 2019, respectively.
• Emerging and developing economies face financial risks due to currency depreciation and monetary tightening.

World Oil Demand

• World oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d in 2018, a minor downward revision from previous projections.
• Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d.
• In 2019, demand growth is forecast at 1.41 mb/d, with total demand projected to exceed 100 mb/d for the first time.
• Non-OECD regions, particularly Latin America and the Middle East, showed weaker demand in 2018, while the US, India, and China recorded stronger demand.

World Oil Supply

• Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, with a downward revision of 64 tb/d from previous estimates.
• The US, Canada, and Brazil are the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway are projected to see the largest declines.
• Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for 2019.
• OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d, respectively.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

• Refinery margins across all main trading hubs improved in August due to product supply disruptions from refinery outages.
• In the US, product markets strengthened, supported by higher exports to Latin America.
• In Europe, tighter product balances due to declining ARA inventories supported refining margins.
• In Asia, refining margins improved due to lower refinery intakes and bullish market sentiment.

Tanker Market

• Dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% m-o-m in August, driven by higher rates for VLCC and Aframax, but Suezmax rates declined.
• Clean tanker freight rates remained under pressure due to high vessel availability and limited tonnage demand.
• The eastern and western Suez directions saw rate declines.

Stock Movements

• OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb in July, reaching 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than the same period in 2017.
• Crude oil stocks showed a deficit of 0.2 mb compared to the five-year average.
• Product stocks also indicated a deficit of 43 mb.
• OECD commercial stocks covered 59.1 days of forward demand, down 2.3 days from the five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

• OPEC crude oil demand is expected at 32.9 mb/d in 2018, down 0.5 mb/d from the previous year.
• In 2019, demand is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, down 0.9 mb/d from 2017.

Key Information

• The report outlines the OPEC Secretariat's analysis of the global oil market, emphasizing the interplay between economic trends, trade tensions, and supply-demand balances.
• The ORB remains a critical benchmark for OPEC crude prices, with continued downward pressure due to global trade concerns and a strong USD.
• The market structure shows mixed trends, with backwardation in Dubai and WTI, and contango in Brent.
• Refinery margins improved due to supply disruptions and strong demand in key regions.
• Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to continue in 2019, with the US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK as key contributors.
• The report warns of increasing economic uncertainty and its potential impact on global oil demand and market stability.

Key Contributors

• Editor-in-Chief: Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani
• Editor: Behrooz Baikalizadeh
• Analysts: Eissa Alzerma, Hector Hurtado, Afshin Javan, Imad Al-Khayyat, Joerg Spitzy, Hassan Balfakeih, Mohammad Ali Danesh, Tona Ndamba, Anisah Almadhayyan, Aziz Yahyai, Nadir Guerer, Viveca Hameder
• Statistical Services: Adedapo Odulaja, Hossein Hassani, Pantelis Christodoulides, Klaus Stoeger, Mohammad Sattar, Ryszard Pospiech
• Editing, Production, Design, and Circulation: James Griffin, Fantini, Alvino-Mario Fantini, Maureen MacNeil, Scott Laury, Matthew Quinn, Hataichanok Leimlehner, Andrea Birnbach

Disclaimer

• The MOMR is for informational purposes only and should not be used as a substitute for professional advice.
• The OPEC Secretariat does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data and makes no warranties.
• Unauthorized use of third-party materials is not permitted, and full acknowledgment of OPEC as the copyright holder is required for educational and non-commercial use.