2018年9月石油市场月报（英文版）-2mb

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - September 2018

Core Content Overview

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 2018 provides a detailed analysis of global oil market dynamics, including price movements, supply and demand trends, commodity markets, and the impact of economic and geopolitical factors on oil prices and trade.

Main Points and Key Information

Oil Price Movements

• OPEC Reference Basket (ORB): Declined by $1.01 month-on-month (m-o-m) to $72.26/b, remaining above $70/b for the fourth consecutive month. Year-to-date (y-t-d), it was $19.82/b higher than in 2017, at $69.55/b.
• Crude Oil Futures: Prices fell in August, driven by concerns over global trade disputes, a strong US dollar, and US stock builds. However, they rose in the second half of the month due to geopolitical uncertainty.
  • ICE Brent: Dropped by $1.11 to $73.84/b, but y-t-d increased by $19.86 to $72.00/b.
  • NYMEX WTI: Plunged by $2.74 to $67.85/b, but y-t-d increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b.
  • DME Oman: Decreased by 24¢ to $72.67/b, but y-t-d rose by $18.70 to $69.55/b.
• Brent-WTI Spread: Widened to $6.00/b in August, with ICE Brent averaging $1.11/b lower than NYMEX WTI.
• Market Structure:
  • Backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while WTI eased from backwardation.
  • Brent contango deepened due to rising supplies.
  • Sweet/sour crude spread narrowed due to anticipated sour crude tightening and strong fuel oil margins.

Global Economic Development

• Global GDP Growth: Forecast at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019.
• OECD:
  • US: Growth remains at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019, supported by fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy.
  • Euro-zone: Growth is at 2.0% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019, with high sovereign debt and banking sector weakness as concerns.
  • Japan: Revised down to 1.1% for both years due to weak domestic demand and low unemployment.
• Non-OECD:
  • India: Growth revised up to 7.6% in 2018, remaining at 7.4% in 2019.
  • China: Maintains 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019.
  • Brazil: Revised down to 1.2% in 2018, but expected to rebound to 2.0% in 2019.
  • Russia: Growth revised down to 1.6% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019, impacted by sanctions and low domestic demand.
• Economic Uncertainty: Risks to global growth have increased due to monetary tightening, trade tensions, and financial instability in emerging markets, particularly in Argentina, Turkey, and South Africa.

World Oil Demand

• 2018: Expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from the previous month.
• 2019: Forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, with a 20 tb/d downward adjustment, reflecting less optimistic economic conditions in Latin America and the Middle East.
• Total Demand:
  • 2018: Estimated at 98.82 mb/d.
  • 2019: Projected to surpass 100 mb/d, reaching 100.23 mb/d.
• Regional Trends:
  • OECD: Strong growth in all three main regions, especially in the Americas.
  • Non-OECD: Weaker demand in Latin America and the Middle East.

World Oil Supply

• Non-OPEC Supply (2018): Expected to increase by 2.02 mb/d, a 64 tb/d downward revision.
  • Main Growth Drivers: US, Canada, Kazakhstan, UK, and Brazil.
  • Largest Declines: Mexico and Norway.
• Non-OPEC Supply (2019): Forecast to rise by 2.15 mb/d, with a 17 tb/d upward revision.
• OPEC NGLs: Expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d in 2018 and 0.11 mb/d in 2019, averaging 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d respectively.
• OPEC Crude Production (August): Increased by 278 tb/d to 32.56 mb/d according to secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

• Refinery Margins: Improved across major trading hubs due to refinery outages and product supply disruptions.
• Regional Performance:
  • US: Strengthened due to higher product exports, especially to Latin America.
  • Europe: Tightened product balances due to declining inventories in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA), supporting margins.
  • Asia: Refining margins strengthened due to lower refinery intakes and bullish sentiment.

Tanker Market

• Dirty Vessel Freight Rates: Increased by 5% m-o-m in August.
  • VLCC and Aframax: Experienced significant rate hikes.
  • Suezmax: Showed a decline.
• Clean Tanker Market: Spot freight rates remained under pressure due to high vessel availability and limited tonnage demand.
• Regional Activity: Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates.

Stock Movements

• OECD Commercial Oil Stocks (July): Rose by 8.1 mb to 2,830 mb, remaining 194 mb below the same period in 2017.
• Crude Stocks: Indicated a 0.2 mb deficit compared to the five-year average.
• Product Stocks: Showed a 43 mb deficit.
• Days of Forward Demand Cover: Increased by 0.1 days to 59.1 days, still 2.3 days below the five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

• OPEC Crude Demand (2018): Expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.5 mb/d lower than in 2017.
• OPEC Crude Demand (2019): Forecast at 32.1 mb/d, 0.9 mb/d lower than in 2018.
• Non-OPEC Supply: Expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d in 2018 and 2.15 mb/d in 2019.

Conclusion

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report highlights a mixed outlook for the global oil market in September 2018. While oil prices declined due to trade tensions and a strong USD, demand and supply trends showed a divergent pattern across regions. Emerging economies face increasing risks from currency depreciation and rising protectionism, while OPEC and non-OPEC countries continue to work toward market stability. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in shaping future oil market conditions.