20220919-招银国际-兖煤澳大利亚-03668.HK-Scarcity_value_yet_to_be_explored__Resume_coverage_with_BUY_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

Yancoal Australia (YAL) is a leading pure coal producer in Australia, and the report resumes coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of HK$53, indicating a potential +62% upside from the current price of HK$32.8. The company is positioned to benefit from global energy security priorities, particularly in Europe, which has seen a significant increase in coal import demand from YAL due to the EU's ban on Russian coal.

Key Highlights

Strong Coal Price and Financial Performance:
- YAL's realized thermal coal price surged 2.3x YoY to A$298/t in 1H22, with a forecast of a 30% HoH increase in thermal coal ASP in 2H22E.
- The company's net gearing ratio dropped from 69% in 2020 to 3% in Jun 2022, allowing for dividend distribution.
- Full year 2022E net profit is forecasted at A$4.5bn (+4.7x YoY), and free cash flow is expected to exceed A$4bn, representing ~50% of free cash yield at current prices.
Market Position:
- Australia is the largest seaborne coal supplier, accounting for 29% of global coal exports in 2021, followed by Indonesia and Russia.
- Europe is a key market for YAL, with its share of revenue increasing from 0.5% in 1H21 to 6% in 1H22.
- The blue sky scenario suggests a target price of HK$160 if coal prices remain at A$298/t for the remainder of its mine life.
Valuation and Target Price:
- The target price of HK$53 is based on a long-term thermal coal price assumption of A$120/t (2025E-2026E).
- The NPV-based target price implies a discount of ~30% compared to the average P/E ratio of overseas peers (4x/5x) and represents 2.8x/3.6x 2022E/2023E P/E.

Financial Performance (FY20A - FY24E)

Financial Metric	FY20A	FY21A	FY22E	FY23E	FY24E
Total Revenue (A$ mn)	3,473	5,403	11,324	10,357	9,559
Core Net Profit (A$ mn)	-1,040	791	4,525	3,763	3,216
Core EPS (A$)	-0.79	0.60	3.43	2.85	2.44
EBITDA (A$ mn)	-89	2,136	7,356	6,339	5,520
EV/EBITDA (x)	-83.1	3.5	1.0	1.2	1.3
P/E (x)	n/a	9.4	1.7	2.2	2.6
P/B (x)	1.5	1.2	0.9	0.8	0.7
Dividend Yield (%)	0.0	8.8	20.1	15.8	13.5
ROE (%)	-18.3	13.9	59.6	38.7	28.9

Key Operating Assumptions and Projections

Production Targets:
- YAL targets 31-33mn tonnes of full-year production in 2022E, with a cash cost target of A$84-89/t (excluding government royalties).
- Full-year capex budget is A$550-600mn.
Production and Sales Volume:
- Marketable coal production (2017-2024E):
  - Thermal coal: 19.3mn to 34.7mn tonnes
  - Metallurgical coal: 3.8mn to 5.2mn tonnes
- Attributable sales volume (2022E):
  - Thermal coal: 27.2mn tonnes
  - Metallurgical coal: 4.8mn tonnes
ASP Growth:
- Thermal coal ASP is expected to grow 144.9% in 2022E to A$350/t.
- Metallurgical coal ASP is forecasted to reach A$320/t in 2022E, with a decline expected in subsequent years.

Key Risks

Decline in coal prices.
Easing geopolitical tensions.
Higher-than-expected production costs.

Peer Comparison

Company	Price (local currency)	Market Cap (US$ m)	P/E (FY1/FY2)	P/B (FY1/FY2)	EV/EBITDA (FY1/FY2)	Dividend Yield (%)
YAL AU Equity	6.09	5,401	1.7/2.2	0.9/0.8	1.0/1.2	20.1
WHC AU Equity	8.63	5,542	2.9/4.3	1.4/1.1	1.8/2.6	11.8
NHC AU Equity	5.57	3,116	4.6/2.7	1.9/1.3	2.8/1.7	14.3
BHP AU Equity	38.04	129,420	8.2/10.2	2.6/2.5	4.2/4.8	8.6
YAL HK Equity	32.80	5,518	1.7/2.2	0.9/0.8	1.0/1.2	20.1

Conclusion

Yancoal Australia is a high-quality, low-cost coal producer with strong fundamentals and a resilient demand outlook. The resumption of coverage with a BUY rating is driven by its strong coal prices, improved financial position, and attractive dividend yield. The company's target price of HK$53 is based on NPV analysis, and it is currently trading at 1.7x 2022E P/E and a 20.1% yield, making it an attractive investment.