20230216-招银国际-兖煤澳大利亚-03668.HK-Confirmation_of_price_cap_and_volume_to_remove_overhang_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) has confirmed a coal price cap and volume allocation policy by the New South Wales (NSW) Government, effective from 1 Apr 2023 to 30 Jun 2024. Under this policy, the company is required to allocate up to 310k tonnes of coal per quarter to domestic power plants at a price cap of A$125/t. This policy aims to ensure domestic coal supply and prevent shortages.

The impact of this policy on pretax earnings is estimated at 3.0% in 2023E and 1.7% in 2024E. These figures are based on the difference between the current average selling price (ASP) of A$300/t and A$250/t and the price cap of A$125/t. The company is not accounting for any potential increase in logistic costs due to domestic sales in these estimates.

CMB International Global Markets (CMBIGM) maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$53.0, unchanged from the previous target price. The current stock price is HK$30.10, indicating a potential upside of +76%.

Key Points

Policy Impact

Price Cap: A$125/t for thermal coal sold to domestic power plants.
Volume Allocation: 310k tonnes per quarter for domestic users.
Earnings Impact:
- 2023E: ~3.0% pretax earnings impact.
- 2024E: ~1.7% pretax earnings impact.
Estimates: Do not include potential increases in logistic expenses.

Upcoming Events

Post-results NDR: Scheduled for 1 Mar in Hong Kong. Investors are advised to contact their sales representative for details.

Key Risks

Decline in coal prices.
Easing geopolitical tensions.
Higher-than-expected production costs.

Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)

FY	Turnover (A$ mn)	Change YoY	Core Net Profit (A$ mn)	Core EPS (A$)	Change YoY	Consensus EPS (A$)	EV/EBITDA (x)	PE (x)	PB (x)	Yield (%)	ROE (%)	Net Gearing (%)
FY20A	3,473	-22.1	-1,040	-0.79	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0	-18.3	68.7
FY21A	5,403	55.6	791	0.60	n/a	n/a	3.5	8.6	1.1	9.6	13.9	31.6
FY22E	11,293	109.0	4,538	3.44	475.7	n/a	1.0	1.7	0.9	20.1	59.7	Net Cash
FY23E	10,311	-8.7	3,800	2.88	-16.3	n/a	1.2	2.1	0.8	16.8	39.0	Net Cash
FY24E	9,501	-7.9	3,245	2.46	-14.6	n/a	1.4	2.4	0.7	14.3	29.1	Net Cash

Shareholding and Stock Data

Market Cap: HK$39,745 million
Avg 3 Mths Turnover: HK$54.4 million
52 Weeks High/Low: HK$47.26 / HK$16.87
Total Issued Shares: 1,320 million

Shareholding Structure

Yankuang Energy: 62.26%
China Cinda AM: 13.74%
Others: 24.00%

Share Performance

Period	Absolute (%)	Relative (%)
1-mth	-7.9	-3.8
3-mth	22.2	7.7
6-mth	4.5	0.7

Valuation and Key Assumptions

Valuation Method: Net Present Value (NPV) based on future cash flows from reserves.
Long-term Coal Prices:
- Thermal: A$120/t (starting 2025E)
- Metallurgical: A$160/t
Unit Cash Cost Inflation: 2% p.a.
WACC: 5.9% (based on 3.7% risk-free rate, 7% risk premium, 0.3x beta, and 10% debt/capital ratio)
AUD/HKD Rate: HK$5.3

Key Financial Ratios

Ratio	FY20A	FY21A	FY22E	FY23E	FY24E
Current Ratio (x)	1.1	3.1	3.8	5.0	6.7
EBITDA Margin (%)	-2.7	40.0	65.6	61.9	58.9
EBIT Margin (%)	-25.7	24.1	57.5	52.9	48.9
Net Profit Margin (%)	-30.0	14.6	40.2	36.9	34.2
ROE (%)	-18.3	13.9	59.7	39.0	29.1

Key Risks and Ratings

Ratings:
- BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
- HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
- SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
- NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM.
Industry Ratings:
- OUTPERFORM: Expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
- MARKET-PERFORM: Expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
- UNDERPERFORM: Expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that:

The views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views.
No part of his or her compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific views expressed.