2022-12-22-EIU-2023欧洲经济展望_9页_13mb

THREATS TO EUROPE’S INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS

ENERGY COST PRESSURES (May 2023)
• European energy costs remain extremely elevated due to depleted gas storage and limited import capacity, making many industrial sectors uncompetitive.
• High energy prices are driving plant closures across industries, with chemicals and base metals being hit the hardest due to direct reliance on natural gas.

SECTOR-SPECIFIC IMPACTS
• Chemicals: Highly energy-intensive; Europe loses market share as China benefits. High gas prices lead to production halts, especially for ammonia and fertilizers, affecting long-term crop yields.
• Metals: Primary energy-intensive metal smelting (e.g., aluminum) is unviable due to soaring power costs. Over 50% of Europe’s metal production capacity is idle.
• Automotive: Facing high input costs and overcapacity; some production may shift to southern Europe. Demand reduction could lead to permanent closures.

OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS
• Global Competitiveness: China benefits from lower costs, while central and eastern Europe lose out to southern Europe. Green industries (e.g., renewables) may gain from subsidies.
• Carbon Border Adjustment: The EU mechanism (2026) could boost Europe’s competitive edge for green-focused industries.
• Geopolitical Factors: Relocation to Asia unlikely amid high costs and uncertainty. Nearshoring may occur for energy-intensive automotive production.

CONCLUSION
• European industry faces a higher cost base, with long-term loss of market share for energy-intensive sectors.
• Less energy-intensive services and green tech innovations may drive future growth amid recession.