2022-12-22-EIU-2023中东经济展望_13页_16mb

Middle East Outlook 2023: Weathers Political and Economic Headwinds

In 2023, the Middle East economy faces mixed prospects amid global and regional challenges. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are expected to drive comparatively strong growth due to high oil revenues and state-backed investments, while most other economies struggle with headwinds. Oil prices remain above $90/barrel, influenced by OPEC+'s production cuts, though risks of volatility exist from geopolitical tensions and demand shifts. Inflation is severe in troubled states like Lebanon and Syria, leading to economic hardship and social unrest, while the GCC manages inflation through exchange rate pegs and subsidies.

The region's tourism industry is showing signs of recovery, with international arrivals potentially reaching pre-COVID levels by the end of 2023, aided by promotional efforts and events like the AFC Asian Cup. Business conditions are favorable in GCC countries, with reforms and foreign investment boosting non-energy sectors, but remain challenging in conflict-prone areas like Syria and Yemen. Iran continues to grapple with an unstable economy, high inflation, and social unrest, exacerbated by Western sanctions and a deteriorating political situation.

Downside risks are prominent, including unresolved conflicts (e.g., Syria, Yemen), escalation in Europe, US-China tensions, and a Chinese slowdown. Geopolitically, the region is pivoting toward Asia, with GCC states investing strategically in Africa, Asia, and humanitarian aid, while maintaining ties with the US for security but exploring closer relations with China and Russia. Ongoing conflicts and social tensions fuel instability, limiting the region's ability to expand regional ties or address humanitarian crises effectively.

Overall, the outlook is cautious, with downside risks outweighing upside potential, urging governments and businesses to adapt to uncertainties in the complex global environment.