2023年夏：欧洲经济展望-38页_969kb

European Economic Forecast Summer 2023 (Interim)

The European Commission's Institutional Paper 255 analyzes the EU economy's performance amid recent shocks, highlighting a loss of growth momentum despite resilience. Key points include:

• Current Situation: EU GDP growth slowed in 2023, driven by weak domestic demand and high inflation, with a rebound expected later. The labor market remains strong but demand is cooling under monetary tightening.

• Main Developments: Inflation is declining but persistent; energy prices fell, easing inflation, but services remain a concern. Global growth is moderate, and supply chain pressures eased. Financial markets show higher interest rates constraining credit.

• Country-Specific Outlooks:

  • Germany: Growth projected at -0.4% in 2023, 1.1% in 2024; inflation to 6.4% in 2023, 2.8% in 2024.
  • Spain: Growth at 2.2% in 2023, 1.9% in 2024; inflation at 3.6% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024.
  • France: Growth at 1.0% in 2023, 1.2% in 2024; inflation at 5.6% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024.
  • Italy: Growth at 0.9% in 2023, 0.8% in 2024; inflation at 5.9% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024.

• Risks: Geopolitical tensions, tighter monetary policy effects, climate risks, and persistent inflation could impact growth and stability.

• Projections: Growth revised down for 2023 and 2024 (EU: 0.8% in 2023, 1.4% in 2024); inflation expected to decline further in 2024 overall.