2017年-世界发展银行全球_Afghanistan_Development_Update_November_2017_40页_1mb

Afghanistan Development Update Summary - November 2017

Core Content

The Afghanistan Development Update for November 2017 provides an overview of the country's economic developments and medium-term outlook, highlighting the challenges posed by the deteriorating security environment and the impact on economic growth, poverty, and service delivery.

Main Points

A. Recent Economic Developments

1. Background

   • The security situation in Afghanistan has continued to worsen.
   • Civilian casualties increased in 2016 and remained high in 2017.
   • The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) rose sharply, reaching over 640,000 by 2016.
   • Over 296,000 Afghan refugees returned from Iran and Pakistan in 2017, adding pressure on host communities.
   • The poverty rate increased from 36% in 2011/12 to 39.1% in 2013/14, with a significant rise in rural areas.
   • Unemployment rose by about 1 percentage point over the past two years, with female unemployment being two and a half times higher than male unemployment.

2. Real Sector Activity

   • Economic growth has slowed significantly since the security and political transition in 2014.
   • The average annual growth rate dropped from 9.4% (2003-2012) to 2.1% (2013-2016).
   • In the first half of 2017, economic activity remained subdued, with new firm registrations slightly lower than in 2016.
   • Business sentiment improved slightly in the first half of 2017 but remained weak compared to 2016.

3. External Sector

   • Exports declined by around 3% in the first half of 2017.
   • The real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated by 4.3% during the same period, reducing export competitiveness.
   • Imports increased by nearly 9% (y-o-y), leading to a wider trade deficit.
   • The Afghani exchange rate stabilized in the first nine months of 2017, after a two-year depreciation.
   • Gross foreign exchange reserves reached US$7.8 billion by August 2017, equivalent to about 12 months of import cover.

4. Fiscal Developments

   • Revenue collection remained strong for the third consecutive year, increasing by almost 13% (y-o-y) in the first eight months of 2017.
   • Tax revenues rose by almost 20% (y-o-y), and customs duties increased by 15% (y-o-y).
   • Non-tax revenues remained flat.
   • The improvement in revenue collection is attributed to better tax and customs administration and enforcement, rather than new policies or currency depreciation.

5. Monetary and Financial Sector Developments

   • The fiscal deficit (excluding donor grants) is projected to grow in 2017.
   • Public spending in the first eight months of 2017 remained similar to 2016, with 77% allocated to recurrent spending.
   • Donor grants are expected to meet their targets, leading to a balanced budget by the end of the year.
   • The inflation rate remained in single digits, with a peak of 7.5% in May 2017, driven by food price increases, especially for fruits and vegetables.
   • The current account is expected to remain in surplus of about 3% of GDP in 2017.

B. Outlook and Medium-Term Prospects

• Economic growth is projected to increase slightly to 2.6% in 2017, up from 2.2% in 2016.
• Growth is expected to rise to 3.2% in 2018, assuming no further deterioration in security.
• Medium-term growth is forecasted to reach 3.6% by 2020, contingent on improved security, political stability, and continued aid flows.
• The poverty rate is expected to remain high due to weak labor demand and security-related constraints on service delivery.
• Fiscal reforms and better targeting of aid towards labor-intensive and community-based programs could enhance growth and reduce poverty.

C. Focus Section: Resilient Despite Challenges

• Health Service Delivery
  • The health service delivery system has shown resilience despite ongoing conflict.
  • Both public and contracted-out health services have performed well, with no significant difference between the two models.
  • NGOs, which are part of the larger contracted-out model, have stronger ties with local communities and better negotiation power within local power structures.
  • Health service delivery has been largely equitable across provinces.
  • Further analysis is needed to fully assess the relative merits of the two delivery models, using complementary data sources and improved methodologies.

Key Information

• Economic Growth: 2.6% in 2017, 3.2% in 2018, 3.6% in 2020.
• Poverty Rate: Increased from 36% (2011/12) to 39.1% (2013/14), expected to remain high.
• Exchange Rate: Appreciated by 2.2% (December 2016–September 2017), stabilized in the first nine months of 2017.
• Trade Deficit: Projected to reach around 33% of GDP in 2017, driven by rising imports.
• Revenue Collection: Domestic revenue reached Aft 104 billion in the first eight months of 2017, up 13% (y-o-y).
• Inflation: Consumer price inflation dropped to 3.8% (y-o-y) in September 2017, with food prices being the main driver.
• Opium Production: The gross value of opiates reached around 15% of GDP in 2016, up from 8% in 2015.
• Security Impact: Conflict has affected economic activity, business confidence, and service delivery, but health services have remained resilient and equitable.

Summary

The report outlines the economic challenges Afghanistan faces due to ongoing conflict and insecurity, including reduced economic growth, increased poverty, and a growing trade deficit. Despite these issues, there are signs of slight improvement in business sentiment and revenue collection. The focus section highlights the resilience of health service delivery, particularly through NGOs, which have been effective in maintaining service quality and coverage despite the conflict. The outlook for the medium term is cautiously optimistic, with growth expected to rise slowly, contingent on improved security and continued aid flows.