世界银行-阿富汗发展更新（英文）-2017.11-40页-1mb

Afghanistan Development Update Summary (November 2017)

Core Content

The Afghanistan Development Update is a biannual report by the World Bank that provides an overview of the country's economic performance and medium-term outlook. It highlights key developments in the real sector, external sector, fiscal and monetary sectors, and includes a focus section on the resilience of health service delivery in the context of ongoing conflict.

Main Points

A. Recent Economic Developments

1. Security Context

   • The security situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly.
   • Civilian casualties have increased, with over 2,640 killed and 5,380 injured between January and September 2017.
   • The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has surged, reaching 640,000 in 2016.
   • Over 296,000 refugees returned from Iran and Pakistan in 2017, increasing pressure on host communities.

2. Economic Activity

   • Economic activity in the first half of 2017 continued to languish, with proxy data indicating weak performance.
   • New firm registrations declined slightly, from 1,700 in 2016 to 1,500 in 2017.
   • Business sentiment improved marginally in the first half of 2017 but remained below 2016 levels.

3. Growth and Sector Performance

   • Economic growth increased moderately from 2014-15, reaching 2.6% in 2017.
   • Agriculture growth slowed to 1.5% in 2017 after a strong 6% in 2016.
   • Industry and services are projected to grow at 2% and 3.3% respectively in 2017.
   • The growth trajectory remains below pre-2014 levels, with an average of 2.1% since 2013.

4. Poverty and Unemployment

   • Poverty increased from 36% in 2011/12 to 39.1% in 2013/14, especially in rural areas.
   • Unemployment rose by about 1 percentage point over two years, with a high rate of 22.6% in 2013/14.
   • Unemployment is particularly severe among low-skilled and illiterate workers.

5. Opium Production

   • The gross value of opium reached around US$3 billion in 2016, equivalent to 15% of GDP.
   • Opium output and cultivation area both increased by 43% and 30% respectively.
   • The absence of diseases in 2016 contributed to the increase in opium production.

6. Inflation

   • Consumer price inflation dropped to 3.8% year-on-year in September 2017.
   • Food inflation peaked at 10.7% in May 2017, driven by rising fruit and vegetable prices.
   • Non-food inflation remained relatively stable, decreasing from 4.1% to 2.4%.
   • Global fuel and grain prices significantly affect domestic inflation.

7. Exchange Rate and Trade

   • The Afghani stabilized against the US dollar in 2017, appreciating by 2.2% between December 2016 and September 2017.
   • The average exchange rate remained stable over the first nine months of 2017.
   • Merchandise trade deficit widened due to increased imports, which rose by nearly 9% year-on-year.
   • Exports decreased by 3% in the first half of 2017, and the real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated by 4.3%.
   • The current account is projected to remain in surplus of 3.2% of GDP in 2017.

8. Fiscal Performance

   • Revenue collection remained strong for the third consecutive year, reaching Aft 104 billion in the first eight months of 2017.
   • Domestic revenues increased by 13% year-on-year, driven by tax and customs duties growth.
   • Tax revenues rose by 20%, and customs duties by 15%, while non-tax revenues remained flat.
   • Improved tax and customs administration and enforcement are key drivers of revenue growth.

B. Outlook and Medium-Term Prospects

• 2017 Growth: Projected at 2.6%, a slight increase from 2.2% in 2016.
• 2018 Growth: Expected to rise to 3.2% if the security environment remains stable.
• 2020 Growth: Projected to increase modestly to 3.6%, contingent on improvements in security, political stability, and continued aid flows.
• Poverty: Expected to remain high in the medium term due to weak labor demand and security constraints.
• Investment and Reform: Stronger growth is possible with effective fiscal and policy reforms, including improved budget execution and community-based programs.

C. Focus Section: Resilient Despite Challenges – Experience from Health Service Delivery

• Health Service Delivery Models: Two models are in use – government-delivered and contracted-out to NGOs.
• Resilience to Conflict: Health service delivery has shown resilience to conflict, with both models performing similarly.
• Equity Across Provinces: Service delivery is largely equitable across provinces.
• NGO Role: NGOs, due to their close ties with communities and local employment practices, are better at navigating local power structures.
• Need for Further Analysis: More research using complementary data and improved methodologies is required to fully evaluate the effectiveness of the two models.

Key Information

• Security Impact: Deteriorating security has constrained private investment and consumer confidence.
• Aid Trends: Overall aid declined from an annual average of US$12.5 billion (2009-2012) to around US$8.8 billion in 2015, but on-budget aid increased.
• Exchange Rate: The Afghani stabilized in 2017 after a 15% depreciation in 2015-16.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: Reached US$7.8 billion by August 2017, equivalent to 12 months of import cover.
• Trade Deficit: Projected to reach around 33% of GDP in 2017, supported by foreign aid.
• Opium Economy: Opium remains a significant part of Afghanistan’s economy, with a gross value of 15% of GDP in 2016.
• Inflation Drivers: Global commodity prices and exchange rate movements are major contributors to domestic inflation.
• Fiscal Stability: A balanced budget is expected by the end of 2017 due to strong revenue collection and planned donor grants.
• Humanitarian Needs: The return of refugees and the increase in IDPs have created significant humanitarian pressures.

Conclusion

Afghanistan's economic development has been hampered by a deteriorating security environment, leading to slower growth and rising poverty. Despite these challenges, the economy shows signs of slight improvement, particularly in business sentiment and revenue collection. The resilience of health service delivery, despite conflict, is attributed to the effectiveness of both government and NGO models, though further analysis is needed. The outlook for 2018 and 2020 remains cautious, with growth expected to be modest unless there are substantial improvements in security, political stability, and reform efforts.