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Afghanistan Development Update Summary (April 2016)

Core Content

The Afghanistan Development Update (April 2016) provides an overview of the country's recent economic developments and medium-term outlook. It highlights the challenges posed by security issues, political instability, and weak domestic demand, while noting some positive fiscal and structural developments. The report is produced by the World Bank and includes contributions from various experts and agencies.

Main Views

• Economic Growth: Afghanistan's economic growth slowed significantly after the withdrawal of international security forces in 2014. In 2015, the growth rate was 1.5%, slightly higher than 2014's 1.3%, but still well below the average of 6.8% from 2008 to 2012. Growth was driven by the industry and services sectors, while agriculture contracted by 2%.
• Investment and Business Activity: Private investment remained constrained due to security challenges. New firm registrations increased marginally in 2015, but were still lower than in 2011-2012. Only a few large-scale projects were launched, with limited foreign direct investment (FDI) at 0.7% of GDP.
• Poverty and Employment: Poverty rates increased from 35.8% in 2011-12 to 39.1% in 2013-14, primarily due to weak GDP growth and high unemployment, which nearly tripled to 22.6% of the labor force.
• Fiscal Developments: Domestic revenues increased by 22% in 2015, reaching 10.4% of GDP, driven by tax reforms, arrears collection, and improved tax administration. However, the fiscal deficit (excluding donor grants) was 1.3% of GDP, with a small portion attributed to the cash-based accounting system.
• External Sector: Exports declined in 2015, despite currency depreciation and high agricultural output, due to structural constraints such as poor infrastructure and limited access to finance. Imports also decreased, narrowing the trade deficit to 38.4% of GDP. Foreign aid remained a key source of financing the trade deficit.
• Currency Depreciation: The Afghani depreciated by 7% against the US dollar in 2015, with a 15% decline in the end-of-year rate. This was driven by reduced aid inflows, lower FDI, and increased preference for holding savings in USD.
• Exchange Rate and Reserves: Foreign exchange reserves declined to $6.9 billion in 2015, down from $7.4 billion in 2014. However, they remained at a comfortable level, covering about 8 months of imports. The exchange rate stabilized in early 2016, but aid inflows are expected to decline over the medium term, potentially affecting reserves.
• Medium-Term Outlook: The report projects a slow recovery, with growth expected to rise from 1.9% in 2016 to 3.6% in 2018, assuming political stability and successful implementation of reforms. However, a deterioration in the security environment could significantly hinder growth.

Key Information

Recent Economic Developments

1. Background:

   • The political and security context continues to shape economic and social development.
   • The new National Unity Government (NUG) launched an ambitious reform agenda, but progress has been hindered by security challenges, including threats from ISIS and the Taliban.

2. Real Sector Activity:

   • Real GDP growth was 1.5% in 2015, up from 1.3% in 2014, but still much lower than the previous average.
   • The agriculture sector saw a 2% contraction, primarily due to reduced cereal production and lower rainfall.
   • The industry and services sectors contributed to growth, with 1.4% and 2.8% respectively.
   • Consumer prices declined, with inflation at -1.5% in 2015, largely due to weak domestic demand and global commodity price drops.
   • The exchange rate depreciated by 7%, with reserves falling to $6.9 billion, but still sufficient for 8 months of imports.

3. Fiscal Developments:

   • Domestic revenues increased by 22% in 2015, reaching 10.4% of GDP.
   • Tax revenues rose by 14%, customs duties by 17.2%, and non-tax revenues by 46%.
   • The fiscal deficit (excluding donor grants) was 1.3% of GDP.
   • Budget execution improved to 73% in 2015, up from 66% in 2014, with security and discretionary development budgets showing the most progress.

4. External Sector:

   • Official exports fell to $550 million in 2015, down from $620 million in 2014, due to structural issues and security.
   • Imports declined, narrowing the trade deficit to $7.4 billion (38.4% of GDP) from $7.9 billion (39.6% of GDP) in 2014.
   • The trade deficit is largely financed by foreign aid and remittances.

5. Monetary and Financial Sector Developments:

   • Broad money (M2) growth slowed to 3.3% in 2015, compared to 8.3% in 2014, indicating weakening money demand.
   • Currency-in-circulation growth also declined, reflecting the slowdown in economic activity.
   • The fiscal balance was slightly in deficit, with a small portion attributed to the cash-based accounting system.

Medium-Term Prospects

• Growth Outlook: Growth is projected to increase gradually from 1.9% in 2016 to 3.6% in 2018, assuming political stability and successful implementation of reforms.
• Challenges: A deterioration in the security environment remains the most significant risk to growth, as it limits capital and labor utilization.
• Employment: Employment trends have worsened, with the unemployment rate rising to 22.6% of the labor force.
• Outmigration: The security situation and lack of employment opportunities have led to increased outmigration, which has further exacerbated poverty.

Focus Section: Revenue Potential in Afghanistan

• Afghanistan has not fully utilized its revenue potential since 2011, despite a notable increase in revenue collection in 2015.
• The country collects significantly less revenue compared to other South Asian, Central Asian, and low-income, fragile countries.
• Revenue potential is defined as the level of revenue that can be collected under efficient tax and customs administration and without corruption.

Appendix

• The World Bank Group has a comprehensive program in Afghanistan, focusing on economic development and poverty reduction.
• The report includes a range of tables and figures providing detailed data on GDP growth, fiscal indicators, and trade flows.
• Key figures include:
  • Real GDP growth by expenditure components.
  • Medium-term macroeconomic framework.
  • Selected economic and fiscal indicators.

Conclusion

The Afghanistan Development Update highlights the ongoing challenges the country faces in terms of security, political instability, and weak domestic demand, while also noting some positive developments in fiscal policy and revenue collection. The report underscores the need for the Government to identify new sources of growth to replace the declining donor inflows and to address the persistent employment crisis and rising poverty levels. The medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, contingent on political stability and successful reform implementation.