2017年-世界发展银行全球_Afghanistan_Development_Update_May_2017_44页_2mb

Afghanistan Development Update Summary - May 2017

Core Content

This report provides an overview of Afghanistan's economic developments and medium-term outlook, highlighting key challenges and opportunities in the country's economic and social context. It is prepared by the World Bank and focuses on the impact of security, political instability, and resource constraints on economic growth and poverty reduction.

Main Points

Economic Growth and Performance

• Real GDP Growth: Increased from 1.1% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2016, driven primarily by strong growth in the agriculture sector.
• Non-Agriculture Sectors: Continued to exhibit sluggish growth, with the industry sector declining by 0.8% and the services sector growing by 2.2%.
• Per Capita Income: With a population growth rate of nearly 3%, the 2.2% GDP growth rate implies a decline in per capita income.
• Fiscal Performance: Revenue collection improved significantly, increasing by nearly 15% in 2016 and exceeding the budget target by around 5%. Domestic revenues reached 10.5% of GDP.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit (excluding donor grants) is projected to grow, but with donor grants, a nearly balanced fiscal budget may be achieved in 2017.

Security and Political Context

• Security Situation: Continued to deteriorate, with increased violence and civilian casualties. In 2016, over 11,400 civilian casualties were reported, including nearly 3,500 deaths and 8,000 injuries.
• Internal Displacement: Increased significantly, with over 640,000 people displaced in 2016, bringing the total number of internally displaced people to 1.4 million.
• Refugee Returns: Over 800,000 Afghan refugees returned from Pakistan and Iran in 2016, creating pressure on public services and infrastructure.

Poverty and Employment

• Poverty Increase: The poverty rate rose to 39.1% in 2013-14, up from 36% in 2011-12, with 1.3 million more people falling into poverty.
• Rural Poverty: Increased by 14% in the period from 2011-12 to 2013-14, reaching 43.6%.
• Unemployment: Rose by about 1 percentage point over the past two years, reaching 22.6% in 2013/14. Female unemployment is significantly higher, at 2.5 times the male rate.
• Labor Market Pressures: High population growth (3% annually) and limited economic growth exacerbate the unemployment situation.

External Sector

• Trade Balance: Improved in 2016, with the merchandise trade deficit shrinking from -36.6% of GDP in 2015 to -33.3% in 2016.
• Exports: Increased by around 10%, reaching US$614 million. Fruit exports, especially fresh and dried fruits, were the main drivers.
• Imports: Declined by 13.5%, to US$6.6 billion, due to weakened domestic demand and currency depreciation.
• Trade Partners: Diversification occurred, with Pakistan's share of total trade declining from 56.5% in 2008 to 38.9% in 2015. India became the largest export destination (31.3%), while Iran became the largest import provider (14.5%).

Currency and Inflation

• Afghani Depreciation: Depreciated by 10.5% against the US dollar in 2016, with a 1.2% depreciation at the end of the year.
• Inflation: Increased from -1.5% in 2015 to 4.4% in 2016, driven by currency depreciation and a recovery in global commodity prices.
• Consumer Prices: Food prices rose from -1.9% to 5.7%, while non-food prices increased from -1.2% to 3.2%.

Investment and Economic Activity

• Private Investment: Remained weak, with a 9% decline in new firm registrations (excluding wholesale and retail trade).
• Vehicle Registrations: Increased by only 3.9%, indicating low levels of economic activity.
• Proxy Indicators: Used due to the lack of high-frequency data, suggesting no significant pickup in private investment.

Future Outlook

• Economic Growth: Projected to increase modestly to 2.6% in 2017 and gradually reach 3.6% by 2020.
• Fiscal Space: Limited, with no room to increase public expenditure or lower taxes. Strategies to improve revenue mobilization and use of existing resources are critical.
• Investment Prospects: Could improve with the accession to the WTO and the opening of the Chabahar port, but security remains a key determinant.

Key Information

Focus Sections

1. Economic Stimulus in Resource-Constrained Environment:

   • Strategies to stimulate growth while maintaining fiscal stability include:
     • Encouraging government spending on non-tradable goods from local suppliers.
     • Improving absorptive capacity to enhance the quality and efficiency of public investments.
     • Promoting contestable markets in banking and construction to stimulate SMEs.
     • Increasing fiscal space through improved revenue mobilization and resource efficiency.

2. Movement Patterns of Returns and Internal Displacement in 2016:

   • A significant number of returnees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) were recorded.
   • The impact of returnees on domestic demand is expected to be minimal due to subsistence activities in rural areas and reliance on public assistance in urban areas.
   • Internal displacement increased due to intensified conflict, with the Southwest region being the most affected.

Data Sources and Methodology

• Proxy Indicators: Used to track economic activity due to the lack of high-frequency data.
• Data Sources: Include UNAMA, UNHCR, UNOCHA, CSO, and UNODC for civilian casualties, poverty, and opium production.
• Herfindahl Index: Used to measure trade concentration, showing a decline in both exports and imports from 2008 to 2015.

Contributors and Acknowledgments

• The report was prepared by Omar Joya, Aman Farahi, Christina Wieser, and Claudia Nassif.
• Acknowledges the support of the Afghanistan country team, Ehsanullah Nasiree for design, Irfan Kortschak for copyediting, and guidance from Manuela Francisco and Shubham Chaudhuri.

Conclusion

Afghanistan's economic recovery remains constrained by ongoing security challenges, political instability, and a lack of fiscal space. While the agriculture sector has driven growth, the non-agriculture sectors have lagged. Poverty and unemployment have increased, particularly in rural areas, and the country is facing a significant rise in internal displacement and refugee returns. The outlook for economic growth is cautiously optimistic, contingent on improved security, political stability, and continued aid. Diversification of trade partners and routes, along with WTO accession and the opening of the Chabahar port, offer potential for long-term investment and economic development.