2017年-世界发展银行全球_Afghanistan_Poverty_Status_Update___Progress_at_Risk_52页_29mb

AFGHANISTAN POVERTY STATUS UPDATE: PROGRESS AT RISK

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Afghanistan's poverty status during the transition period from 2011-12 to 2013-14, using data from the Afghanistan Living Conditions Survey (ALCS) and the Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA). It highlights how economic slowdown, conflict, and reduced international aid have increased poverty and vulnerability, especially among the most marginalized groups. The report also outlines key challenges to human development and labor market stability, and suggests policy directions to address these issues.

Main Findings

Economic Trends and Conflict

• Economic Growth Slowdown: Afghanistan experienced a severe economic contraction between 2012 and 2014, with per capita GDP growth dropping from 10.9% in 2012 to -1.7% in 2014. This is a significant decline from the pre-transition average of 7.7%.
• International Aid Decline: Reduction in international aid and military spending, particularly U.S. reconstruction funding, contributed to job losses and economic instability. US Congressional appropriations for reconstruction and military operations fell by 34% between 2012 and 2013, and over 50% between 2012 and 2014.
• Conflict Escalation: Conflict intensified in 2014, with a record number of incidents and civilian casualties. Conflict was more widespread and affected areas beyond traditional insecure zones.
• Security Perception: Perceptions of insecurity among households increased from 14% in 2011-12 to 16% in 2013-14, reflecting the growing impact of conflict on daily life.

Poverty Trends

• Poverty Increase: The poverty rate rose from 35.8% in 2011-12 to 39.1% in 2013-14, with 1.3 million more Afghans falling into poverty.
• Rural vs. Urban Poverty: Rural poverty increased by 14%, reaching 43.6%, while urban poverty remained stable at 26%. This reflects the disproportionate impact of conflict and reduced international spending on rural areas.
• Welfare Decline: 51.3% of households reported worsening welfare in 2013-14, compared to 33.8% in 2011-12 and 16.7% in 2007-08.

Labor Market Trends

• Job Crisis: Afghanistan faces a significant job crisis, with over 400,000 youth entering the labor market annually. Unemployment reached 22.6% in 2013-14, with nearly one in four labor market participants either working less than 8 hours per week or unemployed.
• Regional Disparities: 90% of jobs destroyed during the transition were in rural areas, and 80% were held by illiterate workers. This indicates the vulnerability of low-skilled and rural populations.
• Migration and Remittances: Migration from rural to urban areas increased, and remittances from abroad became a critical income source for many families. Over 250,000 undocumented migrants and 370,000 registered refugees returned from Pakistan in 2016, and 460,000 from Iran.

Human Development Outcomes

• Education: Primary school attendance declined, with girls' attendance falling by over 2% annually. The urban-rural gap in primary attendance widened.
• Maternal Health: Maternal health outcomes improved, but at a slower pace. The percentage of women receiving skilled antenatal care and delivering with skilled assistance doubled between 2007-08 and 2013-14, but rural access remained limited.
• Basic Services: Access to water and electricity improved, but disparities between urban and rural areas persisted. Eight out of ten urban households had access to improved sanitation in 2013-14, compared to only three out of ten in rural areas.

Vulnerability and Coping Strategies

• Shock Incidence: The incidence of household-specific shocks (such as injury, illness, or death) nearly doubled from 9.5% to 18.6% between 2011-12 and 2013-14.
• Harmful Coping Mechanisms: Poorer and conflict-affected households were more likely to resort to harmful coping strategies, such as selling livestock or assets, increasing child labor, or reducing consumption.
• Social Protection: Access to social protection mechanisms was limited, with only a small percentage of households benefiting from formal safety nets.

Key Messages

• Economic Growth Needs: Economic growth in recent years has improved slightly, but remains well below pre-transition levels and insufficient to fully employ the growing labor force.
• Inclusive Growth: Future poverty reduction requires more inclusive and broad-based growth, with a focus on agriculture development and improving rural-urban linkages.
• Job Creation: Efforts to support legal economic migration abroad must be accompanied by labor-intensive growth within Afghanistan.
• Education and Health Access: Continued focus on education and health outcomes is essential, particularly ensuring service delivery in conflict-affected areas and closing inequalities between urban and rural populations.
• Shock Coping: Policies must help households cope with shocks and reduce their vulnerability to poverty, especially in conflict and disaster-prone areas.

Conclusion

The transition period has significantly increased poverty and vulnerability in Afghanistan, particularly for rural and low-skilled populations. The report underscores the need for sustainable economic growth, improved access to services, and enhanced social protection mechanisms to ensure long-term poverty reduction and stability.