2016年-世界发展银行全球_Afghanistan_Development_Update_October_2016_50页_1mb

Afghanistan Development Update Summary (October 2016)

Core Content

The Afghanistan Development Update for October 2016 provides an overview of the country's economic developments and medium-term outlook, highlighting the ongoing challenges and opportunities in the post-conflict economy. The report underscores the critical link between security and development, emphasizing that despite progress in reforms and international support, economic growth remains constrained by insecurity, weak consumer and business confidence, and adverse weather conditions.

Main Points

Economic Growth and Poverty

• Economic Growth: Afghanistan's economic growth slowed significantly in 2015 to 0.8 percent, and in 2016 is expected to reach only 1.2 percent, well below the population growth rate.
• Poverty Increase: Due to slow growth and deteriorating security, poverty has increased since the pre-transition period, with an estimated 1.3 million more Afghans living in poverty in 2013/14 compared to 2011/12.
• Unemployment: Unemployment rates have risen, especially in rural areas, with a sharp increase from 13.5 percent in 2007/08 to 22.6 percent in 2013/14.

Sectoral Performance

• Agriculture: Agricultural output declined by 5.7 percent in 2015, mainly due to a drop in cereals production (-14.2%). In 2016, cereals production is projected to decline by an additional 2.1 percent, while fruit production increased by about 7 percent.
• Industry: The industrial sector grew by 4.1 percent in 2015, led by construction (7.9 percent) and supported by public infrastructure investments. Manufacturing grew modestly by 0.7 percent.
• Services: The services sector grew at 1.6 percent in 2015, down from 2.2 percent in 2014. Transportation and retail trade saw some recovery, but other services, such as government services and financial services, continued to contract.

External Sector

• Exports: Exports increased by 6 percent in the first half of 2016, reaching around US$250 million. This was partly driven by increased fruit production from the previous year, with fresh and dried fruits accounting for almost a third of official exports.
• Imports: Imports declined by about 10 percent in the first half of 2016 to US$3.3 billion, largely due to weak domestic demand and currency depreciation. The trade deficit is nearly 40 percent of GDP, financed by foreign aid and remittances.
• Currency: The Afghani depreciated in the first two quarters of 2016, then appreciated slightly in the third quarter. The depreciation has contributed to higher consumer prices, which rose from 0.2 percent in December 2015 to 6.9 percent in September 2016.

Fiscal Developments

• Revenue: Domestic revenue collection reached 10.2 percent of GDP in 2015 and increased by 30 percent in the first 8 months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015.
• Expenditure: Public expenditure in the first half of 2016 was 5 percent higher than in the same period in 2015. Security and civilian recurrent expenditures increased by around 9 percent, while development budget expenditures declined due to weak budget execution.
• Fiscal Deficit: A small deficit of 1.3 percent of GDP was recorded in 2015, with a balanced budget expected in 2016.

Key International Support and Reforms

Donor Conferences

• Brussels Conference (October 2016): The international community pledged $3.8 billion annually in civilian donor grants for the next four years.
• NATO Warsaw Summit (July 2016): Security grants of $4.5 billion per year were pledged for the same period.

Government Reforms

• The Government has implemented significant reforms in anti-corruption, revenue collection, and private sector development.
• The new Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework (ANPDF) was presented at the Brussels Conference, outlining a strategic approach to development.

Focus Sections

Focus Section I: Outcomes from Brussels

• The pledged aid levels are sufficient to support substantial development gains.
• To realize these gains, the international community must align aid with government priorities, particularly by increasing on-budget aid.
• The Government must continue with vital policy reforms, adopt a strategic approach to resource allocation, and increase fiscal space through efficient spending and revenue mobilization.

Focus Section II: Fragility and Population Movement

• Civilian casualties remain high, and the number of Internally Displaced People (IDPs) is increasing, straining government capacities.
• Returnees from Pakistan and other countries are adding to the existing 1.2 million IDPs in Afghanistan.
• The report recommends measures such as international support, a consolidated social transfer program, protection of IDP access to education and health, and strengthening urban infrastructure to manage these risks.

Conclusion

Afghanistan's economic growth remains sluggish, with poverty and unemployment on the rise. The country's development prospects depend heavily on continued international support, improved security, and effective government reforms. While the accession to the WTO and the opening of the Chabahar port offer potential benefits, their impact is contingent on the security environment. The report emphasizes the need for a high-growth strategy that requires $1 billion in annual new investment, which can only be achieved through coordinated efforts between the Government and the international community.