世界发展银行-Country-Partnership-Framework-for-the-Republic-of-Kazakhstan-for-the-Period-FY20-25_109页_2mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the Republic of Kazakhstan (FY20-25)

I. Introduction

Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in the world, comparable in size to Western Europe or Argentina, and is one of the most mineral-rich nations globally. Since 2002, its GDP per capita has increased sixfold, and it is now an upper-middle-income country, contributing nearly two-thirds of the regional GDP with only a quarter of the population. The country aims to join the OECD and be among the top 30 economies by 2050.

The CPF for FY20-25 follows the previous Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) from FY12-17 and includes a Completion and Learning Review (CLR) from September 2016. The CPF is designed to support Kazakhstan's development goals, particularly its transition from a resource-driven economy to one based on productivity, innovation, and private sector-led growth.

II. Country Context and Challenges

Recent Economic Developments and Outlook

• Kazakhstan experienced a growth slowdown since 2015-16, driven by falling oil prices, a Russian recession, and a slowing Chinese economy.
• Annual GDP growth dropped to just above 1% in 2015 and 2016, compared to an average of 6% from 2010 to 2014.
• The devaluation of the tenge and floating exchange rate helped stabilize the economy but also reduced incomes and increased poverty.
• The economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, with the financial sector still a potential high fiscal risk.

Trends in Poverty and Shared Prosperity

• Poverty rates have significantly declined over the past two decades, from 36% in 2006 to less than 6% in 2013, primarily due to rising wage employment.
• However, the poverty rate increased sharply from 5.8% in 2013 to 12.2% in 2016, with the most vulnerable regions (e.g., Kyzylorda and Jambyl) seeing more than a tripling in poverty rates.
• Rural areas are disproportionately affected, with poverty rates rising from 9% in 2013 to 17% in 2016.
• The social safety net (SSN) has not fully offset the economic downturn for the most vulnerable groups.
• While non-monetary indicators of poverty have improved, challenges remain in education quality, access to services, and employment opportunities.

Gender

• Kazakhstan's institutions, laws, and processes generally support gender equality, but practical implementation lags.
• The country has made notable progress in education, with nearly eliminated gender disparities.
• Women's life expectancy is significantly higher than men's (76.9 vs. 68.7 years).
• However, gender gaps persist in reproductive health, empowerment (education and political participation), and labor market participation.
• Women earn about two-thirds of what men earn, and the wage gap is not narrowing.

Key Challenges

• Economic Diversification: Overreliance on oil and gas has led to a lack of growth in non-extractive sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
• Productivity and Innovation: Productivity growth has declined since 2008, highlighting structural challenges.
• Institutional and Governance Reforms: The need for more effective and transparent public institutions, particularly in the SOE sector, remains critical.
• Regional and Rural-Urban Disparities: Significant inequalities exist in access to services, economic opportunities, and living standards.
• Public Sector Performance: The public sector remains large and dominant, limiting private sector growth and competition.
• Fiscal Sustainability: High non-oil fiscal deficits and reliance on the National Fund need to be addressed to ensure long-term stability.
• Financial Sector Resilience: The financial sector requires improvements in transparency, risk management, and access to finance for SMEs.
• Climate and Gender Integration: Climate resilience and gender equality are key priorities for the CPF.

III. World Bank Group Partnership Framework

The CPF is centered on institutional strengthening and capacity building to catalyze private sector-led, equitable, and sustainable growth. Key aspects include:

Government Program and Medium-Term Strategy

• The government aims to transition from a growth model based on resource extraction to one driven by efficiency and innovation.
• Emphasis is placed on reducing the public sector's role in the economy and promoting privatization of SOEs.

Lessons from Previous CPS and Public Consultations

• The previous CPS (FY12-17) highlighted the need for more inclusive growth and improved public financial management (PFM).
• Public consultations revealed a strong desire for more accountability, responsiveness, and transparency in public institutions.

Framework for WBG Engagement

• The CPF is designed to align with the WBG's value proposition for upper-middle-income countries.
• It emphasizes a results-based approach, focusing on high institutional impact and leveraging the WBG's comparative advantage over other development partners and commercial lenders.
• The CPF includes a Performance and Learning Review (PLR) in the middle of the implementation period to assess progress toward development objectives and IBRD graduation.

Focus Areas and Objectives

• Private Sector Development: Through the MFD approach, the CPF will support the private sector, particularly SMEs, by improving access to finance and promoting economic diversification.
• Infrastructure and Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): IFC will focus on infrastructure development and PPPs, especially in sectors like agribusiness and transport.
• Financial Sector Strengthening: Efforts will be made to enhance financial sector resilience and access for SMEs.
• Climate Resilience: The CPF incorporates climate-related initiatives, including the RESILAND program.
• Gender Equality: The CPF integrates gender priorities, including the Gender Roadmap and the Gender Development Index (GDI).
• Public Financial Management (PFM): Improving fiscal transparency, reducing subsidies, and enhancing non-oil revenue mobilization are key objectives.
• Social Inclusion: The CPF aims to address regional and rural-urban disparities by improving access to basic services and reducing poverty in vulnerable areas.

IV. Implementation of the CPF

• The CPF will be implemented over a six-year period (FY20-25).
• A Performance and Learning Review (PLR) will be conducted midway to evaluate progress.
• The CPF will use a selective approach, ensuring that all lending activities contribute to institutional strengthening and meet one of the following criteria:
  • Inclusion and shared prosperity
  • Attracting private investment
  • Contributing to regional or global public goods

V. Managing Risks to the CPF Program

• The CPF emphasizes risk management, particularly in the financial sector and public institutions.
• The Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool (SORT) will be used to assess risks and ensure program effectiveness.
• The CPF will also focus on resilience-building, especially in natural capital and economic diversification.
• The One World Bank Group approach will be employed to coordinate efforts between IBRD, IFC, and MIGA to support institutional and market reforms.

Annexes Summary

• Annex 1: New CPF Results Framework outlines the expected outcomes and indicators for FY20-25.
• Annex 2: CLR Report provides an evaluation of the previous CPS and outlines lessons learned.
• Annex 3: Selected indicators of Bank portfolio performance and management are detailed.
• Annex 4: Operations Portfolio lists the Bank's projects and programs in Kazakhstan.
• Annex 5: IFC's held and disbursed portfolio is outlined, highlighting its role in infrastructure and financial sector support.
• Annex 6: Consultations with Kazakhstan stakeholders are summarized.
• Annex 7: Kazakhstan Citizen Engagement Country Roadmap details strategies for improving public participation.
• Annex 8: Kazakhstan Gender Roadmap outlines the country's gender development priorities.