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报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 08 Apr 2014

Core Content Overview

This summary presents key developments and market analysis in the oil and gas sector across Asia and other regions, including news updates, analyst ratings, and price movements as of 07 Apr 2014.

Key News Headlines

Japan's Plastics Feedstock Growth: Japan experienced a 7% YoY increase in plastics feedstock output in February. Specifically:
- Polyvinyl alcohol (PVOH) output rose by 3.6% to 19,926 tonnes.
- Polycarbonate (PC) output decreased by 7.1% to 23,954 tonnes.
- Total plastics products production increased by 5.3% to 427,100 tonnes.
- Exports of plastics feedstock rose by 13% to 303,402 tonnes.
China's Drilling Activities in Tibet: China has been conducting drilling operations in Tibet with boreholes reaching 7km depth, though details about the location and operating company remain undisclosed due to ethical concerns.
Spain's Endesa and LNG Contract: Spain's Endesa signed an additional 1.5 mtpa LNG allotment contract with Cheniere, increasing its total LNG purchase to 2.25 mtpa.
Germany's Wintershall on US LNG: Wintershall, a subsidiary of BASF, stated that replacing Russian gas with US LNG is still not a realistic option due to unresolved supply, price, and logistics issues.
Apache's Coniston Project: Apache is on track for its first oil delivery from the Coniston project in Australia, which has now reached a test production of 11,400 bpd.

Analyst Ratings and Target Prices

Company	Rating	Target Price	Notes
Petronas Gas	HOLD	MYR23.50	Not as accretive as expected; stable revenue profile
NewOcean Energy	BUY	HKD8.88	Reiterated BUY; stock pulled back 30% from recent high
Bumi Armada	BUY	MYR5.00	Bags Eni's LOI for Angola's FPSO job; projected first oil by Oct 2016

Oil & Gas Price and Index Movements

Commodity/Instrument	Bloomberg Ticker	Units	Last Price	Absolute Change	1D Change	1W Change	1M Change
Crude Oil (WTI)	CLA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	100.77	-0.37	-0.4%	-0.8%	-1.2%
Crude Oil (Brent)	COA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	105.82	-0.9	-0.8%	-1.8%	-2.4%
Dubai Fateh Spot	PGCRDUBA Index	USD/bbl.	102.58	-0.74	-0.7%	-2.0%	-1.6%
China Daqing Spot	APCRDAQG Index	USD/bbl.	108.09	+3.25	+3.1%	+1.8%	+1.4%
NYMEX Henry Hub	NGA COMDTY	USD/MMBtu	4.47	0.00	+0.7%	+2.3%	-2.1%
Singapore 92 RON Spot	MOGFM92S Index	USD/bbl.	116.38	+0.54	+0.5%	-0.2%	-0.7%
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot	GASL500P Index	USD/bbl.	120.70	-1.08	-0.9%	-1.6%	-1.1%
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot	N6SH180S Index	USD/mt	595.52	-5.40	-0.9%	-2.1%	-1.9%
Gold	XAU CURNCY	USD/Oz	1,298.81	-4.69	-0.4%	+1.2%	-3.1%
USD-JPY	USDJPY CURNCY	Fx rate	103.11	-0.18	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%
USD-EUR	USDEUR CURNCY	Fx rate	0.73	-0.00	-0.3%	+0.2%	+1.0%
USD-CNY	USDCNY CURNCY	Fx rate	6.21	0.00	0.0%	-0.1%	+1.4%
DJI	DJI INDEX	Index	16,245.87	-166.84	-1.0%	-1.3%	-1.3%
S&P 500	SPX INDEX	Index	1,845.04	-20.05	-1.1%	-1.5%	-1.8%
30Y T-Bill	USGG30YR INDEX	Yield	3.56	-0.03	-0.7%	0.0%	-4.4%

Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price (07-Apr)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	P/E (2013)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	NR	8.70	NR	221.5	95.5	9.7	9.7	6.0	5.1	11.8	1.1	4.6
Sinopec - H	386 HK	NR	6.99	NR	97.1	114.0	9.7	8.7	5.3	4.6	12.2	1.1	4.3
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	NR	12.22	NR	70.4	120.2	7.7	7.7	3.6	3.4	17.3	1.2	4.6
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	325.60	NR	46.2	19.1	11.5	10.5	6.3	4.8	16.8	1.8	2.9
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	944.15	NR	50.7	53.1	13.3	13.1	10.4	9.8	11.9	1.5	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	buy	341.50	443.00	10.8	13.2	5.4	4.7	3.6	3.1	25.1	1.4	3.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	438.10	NR	5.3	9.8	16.8	15.1	7.2	8.4	11.5	1.9	2.5
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	307.35	NR	1.7	6.2	20.8	11.3	12.6	10.3	3.7	0.8	2.8
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	hold	23.84	23.50	14.4	4.6	22.7	28.4	18.1	15.4	21.4	4.6	2.3
NewOcean Energy	342 HK	BUY	12.20	15.90	2.5	2.0	22.6	15.3	9.9	10.2	6.9	1.7	0.7
Bumi Armada	BAD MK	BUY	3.65	3.90	1.4	1.0	27.3	23.9	17.4	14.6	17.0	4.7	3.7
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	buy	70.00	87.00	9.7	57.6	9.5	8.5	7.2	5.9	7.9	0.8	1.3
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	sell	52.00	65.00	3.3	6.8	10.2	9.1	6.7	7.3	11.7	1.2	3.4
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	buy	89,500	103,000	8.0	1.7	13.8	11.7	9.3	7.4	40.8	5.1	3.4

Key Observations

Market Confidence: Investors are still cautious, particularly regarding the sustainability of margins for NewOcean Energy.
Valuation Trends: Companies in the oil and gas sector are showing varying levels of valuation, with some experiencing a re-rating due to strategic moves such as entering the Auto LNG market.
Strategic Moves: Dialog and other O&G groups are expected to benefit from PETRONAS's RAPID project, which has received significant positive market attention.
Valuation Multiples: The average P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples across the region are influenced by market capitalization, with some companies trading at lower valuations than their projected earnings.
Currency and Commodity Trends: The USD-CNY exchange rate has slightly increased, while gold prices have declined, affecting the valuation of companies with exposure to these markets.

Summary

This report highlights recent developments in the regional oil and gas sector, focusing on production, market trends, analyst ratings, and valuation metrics. Key areas of interest include Japan's plastics feedstock growth, China's drilling activities in Tibet, Spain's LNG procurement, and the challenges faced by Germany in transitioning from Russian gas to US LNG. Additionally, it outlines the performance and outlook for several key companies, such as Petronas Gas, NewOcean Energy, and Bumi Armada, with insights into their financial and operational status. The valuation comparison provides a snapshot of current market sentiments and expectations for future performance.

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