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报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 04 August 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 04 August 2014, highlighting price movements, news headlines, and analyst ratings for various companies across Asia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. It also includes key reports and valuation comparisons for oil and gas services.

Key Market Movements

Stock Market:
- Dow Jones and S&P 500 extended declines by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, with weekly declines reaching 2.4% and 2.7%.
Oil Prices:
- Brent Crude: Down 0.3% to $104.75, with a 1-day change of -1.27 and a 1-week change of -1.2%.
- WTI Crude: Down 1.2% to $97.88, with a 1-day change of -0.29 and a 1-week change of -0.3%.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Up 0.5% to $104.37, with a 1-day change of +0.56 and a 1-week change of -0.2%.
- China Daqing Spot: Down 0.2% to $103.68, with a 1-day change of -0.18 and a 1-week change of -1.4%.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Up 0.4% to $119.57, with a 1-day change of +0.53 and a 1-week change of +0.1%.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Down 0.6% to $602.21, with a 1-day change of -3.60 and a 1-week change of -0.8%.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: No change at $11.00, with a 1-day change of 0.00 and a 1-week change of 0.0%.
- Gold: Up 0.9% to $1,293.75, with a 1-day change of +11.16 and a 1-week change of -1.0%.
- USD-CNY: Up 0.1% to 6.18, with a 1-day change of +0.01 and a 1-week change of -0.2%.

News Headlines

US Commerce Sanctions on Russia:
- The US Commerce Department banned the export of seismic equipment and drill pipes to Russia, impacting offshore and shale resource development.
RSI: Ethanol Industry Vulnerability:
- The US proposal to require additional steel jackets on railcars for petroleum products could significantly affect the ethanol industry, as most tank cars are already jacketed.
Taiwan Pipeline Investigation:
- Following a pipeline explosion in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, a nationwide investigation into pipelines is underway, with four petrochemical companies halting operations.
China Oil Product Inventories:
- Private oil product wholesalers in China saw a 4.9% drop in inventories to 308,350 tonnes.
Fushun Mining Shale Oil Price:
- Fushun Mining lowered the shale oil price by 1.3% after selling 11kt at CNY5,033/tonne.
Rosneft Acquires Drilling Assets:
- Rosneft closed a USD500m deal to acquire drilling equipment from Weatherford before US sanctions.
Woodside Shareholders Reject Shell Buy-Back:
- Woodside failed to secure the required 75% shareholder approval for a Shell buy-back plan, achieving only 72% support.
Petrobras FPSO Tender:
- Brazil's Odebrecht Oil & Gas won Petrobras's FPSO tender for the Libra pre-salt field.
LyondellBasell Kurdish Crude Purchase:
- LyondellBasell confirmed the purchase of disputed Kurdish crude from Iraq but will not accept future deliveries until the dispute is resolved.

Analyst Reports

Cosco Corp

Rating: SELL
Target Price: SGD0.67
Performance: 2Q14 PATMI of SGD14.3m, in line with expectations.
Order Wind Down: Cut FY14E order winds from USD2.0b to USD1.5b.
Valuation: PEGGED to trough P/BV of 1.1x.

Ezon Holdings

Rating: BUY
Target Price: SGD2.85 (post-bonus issue: SGD2.38)
Performance: Results in line, excluding one-off gain, 1H14 PATMI rose 40% YoY to USD90.5m.
Bonus Issue: Proposed 1-for-5 bonus issue.
Valuation: Rolled over to 11x FY15E P/E.

Cairn India

Rating: BUY
Target Price: INR400
Performance: 1Q recurring EPS of INR14.5 above Street expectations.
Valuation:
- 5.1x PER
- 0.8x P/B
- 4% dividend yield
Loan Concern: Investors sold the stock due to a INR48b loan to a group company, but the company's production and reserves are improving.

Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison

PetroChina - H (857 HK):
- Rating: Buy
- Price: 10.14
- Target Price: 11.50
- Market Cap: USD236.4m
- 90D T/O: USD94.2m
- P/E: 11.1 (2014E), 10.0 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 5.6 (2014E), 5.1 (2015E)
- RoE: 11.3%
- P/B: 1.2x
- Yield: 4.0%
Sinopec - H (386 HK):
- Rating: Hold
- Price: 7.54
- Target Price: 6.85
- Market Cap: USD101.2m
- 90D T/O: USD73.8m
- P/E: 10.1 (2014E), 9.6 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 5.0 (2014E), 4.7 (2015E)
- RoE: 11.7%
- P/B: 1.1x
- Yield: 4.0%
CNOOC LTD (883 HK):
- Rating: Hold
- Price: 13.78
- Target Price: 14.34
- Market Cap: USD79.4m
- 90D T/O: USD84.2m
- P/E: 9.0 (2014E), 8.5 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 3.8 (2014E), 3.4 (2015E)
- RoE: 15.1%
- P/B: 1.3x
- Yield: 3.9%
ONGC (ONGC IN):
- Rating: NR
- Price: 386.35
- Market Cap: USD54.3m
- 90D T/O: USD50.8m
- P/E: 10.2 (2014E), 9.1 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 4.7 (2014E), 4.2 (2015E)
- RoE: 18.0%
- P/B: 1.7x
- Yield: 3.1%
Reliance Industries (RIL IN):
- Rating: NR
- Price: 976.30
- Market Cap: USD51.9m
- 90D T/O: USD71.9m
- P/E: 12.1 (2014E), 10.8 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 8.2 (2014E), 7.1 (2015E)
- RoE: 12.2%
- P/B: 1.4x
- Yield: 1.1%
Cairn India (CAIR IN):
- Rating: Buy
- Price: 312.75
- Target Price: 443.00
- Market Cap: USD9.6m
- 90D T/O: USD17.0m
- P/E: 4.3 (2014E), 4.1 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 2.9 (2014E), 2.7 (2015E)
- RoE: 23.6%
- P/B: 4.3x
- Yield: 4.5%
Petronas Gas (PTG MK):
- Rating: Hold
- Price: 23.10
- Target Price: 23.50
- Market Cap: USD14.3m
- 90D T/O: USD6.6m
- P/E: 27.4 (2014E), 26.4 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 15.4 (2014E), 14.8 (2015E)
- RoE: 16.1%
- P/B: 4.2x
- Yield: 2.6%
Petron Corp (PCOR PM):
- Rating: Buy
- Price: 12.38
- Target Price: 16.80
- Market Cap: USD2.7m
- 90D T/O: USD1.3m
- P/E: 15.5 (2014E), 7.9 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 10.3 (2014E), 6.2 (2015E)
- RoE: 6.7%
- P/B: 1.2x
- Yield: 0.4%
Phoenix Petro (PNX PM):
- Rating: Buy
- Price: 5.88
- Target Price: 7.05
- Market Cap: USD0.2m
- 90D T/O: USD0.1m
- P/E: 9.5 (2014E), 8.1 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 9.1 (2014E), 8.1 (2015E)
- RoE: 13.9%
- P/B: 1.2x
- Yield: 1.7%
PTT Global Chemical PCL (PTTGC TB):
- Rating: Buy
- Price: 65.50
- Target Price: 87.00
- Market Cap: USD9.2m
- 90D T/O: USD24.9m
- P/E: 8.9 (2014E), 8.3 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 6.5 (2014E), 6.1 (2015E)
- RoE: 13.3%
- P/B: 1.1x
- Yield: 3.4%
Thai Oil PCL (TOP TB):
- Rating: Sell
- Price: 51.25
- Target Price: 65.00
- Market Cap: USD3.2m
- 90D T/O: USD5.7m
- P/E: 11.7 (2014E), 10.3 (2015E)
- EV/EBITDA: 7.1 (2014E), 6.6 (2015E)
- RoE: 9.7%
- P/B: 1.1x
- Yield: 4.0%

Key Takeaways

Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment is mixed, with declines in major indices and oil prices.
Sanctions Impact: The US sanctions on Russia and the ethanol industry's vulnerability to railcar replacement are significant concerns.
Pipeline Safety: Taiwan is addressing pipeline safety issues following a recent explosion.
Inventory Trends: China's oil product inventories have declined, indicating possible demand or supply adjustments.
Company Performance: Cairn India and Ezon Holdings show strong fundamentals, with positive analyst ratings.
Valuation Insights: Valuation metrics such as P/E and EV/EBITDA are used to assess company performance, with some showing attractive valuations.
Geopolitical Risks: The South China Sea's geopolitical risks and global capex cuts are influencing investor behavior.