世界经济论坛-2023年就业前景报告（英）-2023.5-296页_17mb

Future of Jobs Report 2023 Summary

Core Content

The Future of Jobs Report 2023 is a comprehensive analysis of global labor market trends, focusing on the impact of macroeconomic, technological, and geopolitical factors on employment and skills over the 2023-2027 period. It highlights the evolving nature of work, the shift in job demand, and the necessary skills and strategies for businesses to adapt.

Main Findings

Global Labour Market Divergence

• High-income countries experience tight labor markets, while low- and lower-middle-income countries continue to face higher unemployment than before the pandemic.
• Individual-level disparities are evident, with workers having only basic education and women experiencing lower employment levels.
• Real wages are declining due to the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, and worker expectations about job quality are becoming more prominent.

Macrotrends and Technology Impact

• Technology adoption is a key driver of business transformation, with over 85% of surveyed companies expecting increased use of new and frontier technologies and digital access.
• ESG standards and green transition investments are also significant drivers of change.
• Macrotrends such as rising cost of living, slow economic growth, and supply shortages are expected to have a major impact on labor markets.
• The pandemic's ongoing effects, geopolitical divisions, and demographic dividends are still influential but ranked lower than previously anticipated.

Job Creation and Destruction

• The largest job creation effects are expected from environmental, technology, and economic trends.
• Fastest-growing roles include AI and Machine Learning Specialists, Sustainability Specialists, Business Intelligence Analysts, and Information Security Analysts.
• Fastest-declining roles are primarily clerical and secretarial positions, such as Bank Tellers, Postal Service Clerks, Cashiers, and Data Entry Clerks.
• Job growth is forecast in education, agriculture, and digital commerce and trade.
• Job losses are expected in administrative roles and traditional security, factory, and commerce roles.

Skills Outlook

• Analytical thinking and creative thinking are the most important skills for workers in 2023.
• Cognitive skills are growing in importance faster than other skills, with analytical thinking being the top priority for skills training.
• Technology literacy is the third-fastest growing core skill, while self-efficacy skills such as resilience, flexibility, and agility are also increasing in importance.
• Socio-emotional attitudes like curiosity and lifelong learning, resilience, and motivation and self-awareness are rising in significance.
• Reading, writing, and mathematics, global citizenship, sensory-processing abilities, and manual dexterity, endurance, and precision are considered to be of declining importance.

Workforce Strategies

• 64% of companies expect a structural labor market churn of 23% in the next five years.
• AI and big data are expected to drive high churn, with 50% of organizations anticipating job growth and 25% expecting job losses.
• Skills training is a top priority, with 44% of workers needing training by 2027.
• Training access remains limited, with only 50% of workers having access to adequate training opportunities today.
• Company-led initiatives are preferred over external training solutions to close skills gaps.
• Reskilling and upskilling are expected to yield ROI within a year, with benefits including enhanced mobility, worker satisfaction, and productivity.

Key Trends and Impacts

Technology Adoption

• Big data, cloud computing, and AI are the most likely technologies to be adopted, with 75% of companies planning to implement them.
• Digital platforms and apps are expected to be adopted by 86% of companies, and e-commerce and digital trade by 75%.
• Robots, power storage, and distributed ledger technologies are expected to be adopted at a lower rate.

Automation and Human Skills

• Automation is expected to increase slightly, with 34% of tasks currently performed by machines and 66% by humans.
• Task automation is expected to rise to 42% by 2027, with reasoning and decision-making being the least automatable and information and data processing the most.
• Reasoning, communication, and coordination are expected to be more automatable in the future, despite reduced expectations for physical and manual tasks.

Workforce Development

• Workforce development is most commonly viewed as the responsibility of workers and managers, with 27% of training expected to come from on-the-job training and coaching.
• Internal training departments and employer-sponsored apprenticeships are also important, but less so than company-led initiatives.

Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI)

• A majority of companies prioritize women, youth under 25, and workers with disabilities in their DEI programs.
• A minority prioritize those from disadvantaged religious, ethnic, or racial backgrounds, workers over 55, LGBTQ+ individuals, and low-income workers.

Government Interventions

• Funding for skills training is seen as the most effective intervention by 45% of businesses, ahead of flexibility in hiring, tax incentives, school system improvements, and changes to immigration laws.

Conclusion

The Future of Jobs Report 2023 emphasizes the complex and divergent nature of the global labor market, driven by technological, economic, and geopolitical factors. It calls for multistakeholder collaboration to prepare workers, businesses, and governments for the challenges and opportunities of the future. The report also highlights the importance of reskilling and upskilling, particularly in cognitive and socio-emotional skills, and the need for inclusive and equitable workforce development strategies.