2023-04-29-世界经济论坛-The_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2023_296页_20mb

Future of Jobs Report 2023 Summary

Core Content

The Future of Jobs Report 2023 by the World Economic Forum provides an in-depth analysis of global labor market transformations from 2023 to 2027, focusing on the interplay between macroeconomic trends, technological advancements, and the evolving skill demands. It highlights how these forces are reshaping employment and workforce strategies across different sectors and regions.

Key Findings

• Labour Market Divergence: Global labor markets are showing divergent outcomes. High-income countries experience tight labor markets, while low- and lower-middle-income countries still face higher unemployment than pre-pandemic levels. Individual outcomes also vary, with workers having only basic education and women facing lower employment rates.

• Wage Trends: Real wages are declining due to the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, and workers are increasingly concerned about the quality of their jobs.

• Technology Adoption: Over 85% of surveyed organizations identify increased adoption of new and frontier technologies, as well as broader digital access, as the most impactful trends for transformation. AI, big data, cloud computing, and digital platforms are expected to have the largest impact on job growth and disruption.

• Job Creation and Destruction: The largest net job creation effects are expected from environmental, technology, and economic trends. Specifically:

  • Fastest-Growing Roles: Technology, digitalization, and sustainability are the main drivers of fast-growing roles, including AI and Machine Learning Specialists, Sustainability Specialists, and Renewable Energy Engineers.
  • Fastest-Decreasing Roles: Clerical and manual roles are expected to decline significantly, such as Bank Tellers, Postal Service Clerks, and Data Entry Clerks.

• Automation Trends: Automation is expected to increase slightly, with 34% of business tasks currently automated, projected to rise to 42% by 2027. However, the rate of automation is slower than previously anticipated. Cognitive and technical skills, such as analytical and creative thinking, are expected to grow in importance, while manual and basic skills may decline.

• Skills Outlook: Analytical thinking is the most important skill, followed by creative thinking, technological literacy, and socio-emotional skills like curiosity and lifelong learning. Employers estimate that 44% of workers' skills will be disrupted over the next five years, with a focus on reskilling and upskilling to adapt to new roles.

• Workforce Strategies: Companies are prioritizing skills training, with 60% of workers expected to need training by 2027. The most common workforce strategies include investing in learning and on-the-job training, and automating processes. Training is expected to be delivered primarily by on-the-job training and coaching (27%), followed by internal departments (23%) and employer-sponsored apprenticeships (16%).

• DEI Priorities: A majority of companies prioritize women, youth under 25, and individuals with disabilities in their diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs. A minority also considers workers from disadvantaged religious, ethnic, or racial backgrounds, and those over 55 or from low-income backgrounds.

• Government Intervention: Skills training funding is seen as a key intervention by 45% of businesses, surpassing other measures such as hiring flexibility and tax incentives.

Main Drivers of Transformation

1. Macrotrends:

   • The green and energy transition is a significant driver of job creation.
   • Macroeconomic factors such as the rising cost of living and slow economic growth are expected to have a major impact on employment.
   • Supply shortages and consumer expectations around social and environmental issues also influence labor markets.

2. Technology Adoption:

   • AI and big data are expected to be major contributors to both job growth and displacement.
   • Digital platforms and e-commerce are also highly anticipated for adoption, with 86% and 75% of companies respectively expecting to integrate them.
   • Robots, power storage, and distributed ledger technologies are expected to have a lower impact compared to other technologies.

Workforce Challenges and Strategies

• Barriers to Transformation: Skills gaps and difficulty in attracting talent are the main barriers to industry transformation. Companies are focusing on improving internal talent progression and promotion processes rather than relying on external training solutions.

• Talent Development: Companies are expected to invest heavily in reskilling and upskilling, with 9% of reskilling efforts dedicated to AI and big data, which is higher than the investment in creative thinking.

• Talent Retention: Retaining skilled workers is a growing concern, with 20% of employees globally intending to switch employers in the coming year.

Conclusion

The 2023 Future of Jobs Report emphasizes the need for a multistakeholder approach to address the challenges and opportunities presented by the evolving labor market. It underscores the importance of adaptation, reskilling, and inclusive growth to ensure that all workers can benefit from the transformations brought by technological and macroeconomic changes.

Key Figures

• 803 companies surveyed, employing over 11.3 million workers.
• 69 million jobs expected to grow, 83 million jobs to decline, resulting in a net decrease of 14 million jobs.
• 23% of jobs are expected to undergo structural churn over the next five years.
• 44% of workers' skills are expected to be disrupted.
• 79% of companies prioritize women in their DEI strategies.
• 45% of businesses see skills training funding as an effective government intervention.

Appendices and Additional Resources

• Appendix A: Details the methodology used in the survey.
• Appendix B: Provides a sectoral lens on macrotrends and technology.
• Appendix C: Focuses on the sectoral lens of skills.
• User Guide: Offers guidance on using the Economy, Industry, and Skill Profiles.
• Economy, Industry, and Skill Profiles: Offer detailed insights into labor market trends and skills demands across different regions and sectors.

This report serves as a critical resource for understanding the future of work and the strategies needed to navigate the changing landscape.