20150630-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_19页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 30 June 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the Asian markets, with a focus on the Automobile sector in China, United Tractors (UNTR IJ) in Indonesia, IOI Corporation (IOI MK) in Malaysia, and Overseas Education (OEL SP) in Singapore. It includes market updates, key indices, earnings forecasts, corporate events, and investment recommendations.

Main Points

China Automobile Sector

Earnings Downgrade: China's passenger vehicle (PV) sales growth for 2015-16 has been revised down from 8% to 6-7% due to slower market growth, intense competition, and macroeconomic headwinds.
Price Pressure: Car prices are under pressure due to price cuts by major brands and retail discounts.
Sales Slowdown: PV sales growth slowed from 9% yoy in Q1 2015 to 2% yoy in Apr-May 2015. This is attributed to car licence quotas in cities like Shenzhen.
Market Trends: SUV sales are growing strongly, driven by favorable demographics and demand in lower-tier cities.
Top Picks: Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Geely (175 HK) are recommended as BUY due to their strong positions in the SUV and mid-range segments, respectively.
Downgrade: GAC (2238 HK) is downgraded from BUY to HOLD due to vulnerability to price competition and weak sales growth.
Key Assumptions: Sales and margins for mid-range brands are expected to be more affected than for GWM and Geely.

United Tractors (UNTR IJ)

Performance Update: Pama's overburden volume and stripping ratio improved in May 2015, with overburden volume up 7% mom and stripping ratio at 7.1x.
Coal Sales: Coal sales volume declined 6% mom and 22% yoy in May 2015 due to weak coal prices.
Valuation: The stock is currently trading at 12.6x 2016F PE, which is considered undemanding.
Recommendation: Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rp21,200.
Positive Factors: After-sales revenue and rupiah depreciation are expected to provide upside to net profit in 2015.
Risks: Macro risks (credit tightening, economic slowdown) and geopolitical risks (anti-Japanese riots) could affect performance.

IOI Corporation (IOI MK)

Shariah-Compliant Status: IOI is at risk of losing its Shariah-compliant status due to debt restructuring.
Potential Restructuring: The company may restructure its debt to regain Shariah-compliant status.
Recommendation: Maintain HOLD with a target price of RM4.00.

Overseas Education (OEL SP)

School Fees Adjustment: School fees were adjusted higher than expected, which may affect the sector.
Recommendation: BUY with a target price of S$1.02 and an entry price of S$0.85.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17596.4	-2.0	-2.9	-2.3	-1.3
S&P 500	2057.6	-2.1	-3.1	-2.4	-0.1
FTSE 100	6620.5	-2.0	-3.0	-5.2	0.8
AS30	5416.6	-2.2	-3.3	-6.2	0.5
CSI 300	4191.5	-3.3	-9.6	-13.4	18.6
FSSTI	3280.2	-1.2	-1.1	-3.3	-2.5
HSCEI	12694.7	-3.0	-5.1	-10.0	5.9
HSI	25967.0	-2.6	-4.1	-5.3	10.0
JCI	4882.6	-0.8	-1.5	-6.4	-6.6
KLCI	1691.9	-1.1	-2.4	-3.2	-3.9
KOSPI	2060.5	-1.4	0.3	-2.6	7.6
Nikkei 225	20110.0	-2.9	-1.6	-2.2	15.2
SET	1511.2	-0.5	0.5	1.0	0.9
TWSE	9236.1	-2.4	-1.1	-4.8	-0.8
BDI	813	-1.2	4.4	38.0	4.0
CPO (RM/mt)	2244	-0.6	-0.3	3.9	-2.3
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	58	-0.1	-4.5	-3.4	9.4

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Potential Upside (%)
Beijing Capital	694 HK	8.84	12.30	39.1
ICBC	1398 HK	6.10	7.80	27.9
Bank BJB	BJBR J	825.00	1,300.00	57.6
Maybank	MAY MK	9.14	10.30	12.7
DBS	DBS SP	20.30	25.08	23.5
SATS Ltd	SATS SP	3.58	4.00	11.7
Kasikornbank	KBANK TB	195.50	252.00	28.9
PTT	PTT TB	363.00	410.00	12.9

Key Assumptions

Region	2013 GDP (%)	2014 GDP (%)	2015F GDP (%)	2016F GDP (%)
US	2.2	2.4	2.9	2.9
Euro Zone	-0.5	0.9	1.3	1.3
Japan	1.6	-0.1	1.0	1.0
Singapore	4.4	2.9	2.9	2.9
Malaysia	4.7	6.0	5.0	5.0
Thailand	2.8	0.9	2.7	2.7
Indonesia	5.6	5.0	5.0	5.0
Hong Kong	7.7	7.2	7.0	7.0
China	7.7	7.2	7.0	7.0

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start Date	End Date
QL Resources Berhad Roadshow	Singapore	30 Jun	30 Jun
Malaysia 2H15 Outlook & Strategy Analyst Presentation	Singapore, Kuala Lumpur	1 Jul	1 Jul
Indo Oil and Gas Sector Analyst Presentation	Singapore, Kuala Lumpur	6 Jul	6 Jul
China Autos and Economics Analyst Presentation	Lugano, Milan, Europe	8 Jul	8 Jul
China Autos and Economics Analyst Presentation	Frankfurt, London	10 Jul	13 Jul

Risks

Macro Risk: Credit tightening and economic slowdown could hurt automobile sales.
Geopolitical Risk: Anti-Japanese riots may impact Japanese car sales in China, affecting DFM and GAC.
Debt Restructuring Risk: IOI's potential debt restructuring could affect its Shariah-compliant status.