亚开行-《太平洋经济监测》-2023年12月：为经济复苏和恢复能力调动国内资源（英）-2023.12-48页_7mb

Summary of Pacific Economic Monitor (December 2023)

1. Global and Regional Developments

• Economic growth remains sluggish, with global GDP projected at 3.0% in 2023 due to lingering pandemic effects, monetary tightening, and geopolitical tensions.
• Developing Asia is projected at 4.9% for 2023, while Pacific subregion growth is forecast at 3.5% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024.
• Tourism recovery remains uneven, with markets from Australia and New Zealand showing resilience, but destinations like the Cook Islands, Tonga, and Palau lagging.

2. Fiscal Challenges and Responses

• Many Pacific countries face constrained fiscal space due to high debt levels and reduced revenue collection capacity.
• Recovery efforts have relied heavily on development assistance, grants, and aid, with tax reforms aiming to broaden revenue bases and increase efficiency.
• Countries like the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Marshall Islands, and Palau continue to phase out aid dependency through domestic resource mobilization (DRM).

3. Policy Directions

• Tax reforms are a priority, focusing on digitalization of tax administration (e-tax systems), Value-Added Tax (VAT) expansion, and improved tax compliance.
• Enhanced revenue management and simplified tax filing systems have been implemented in countries like the Cook Islands to increase efficiency and transparency.
• Climate change adaptation and infrastructure investments require additional fiscal space, necessitating reforms and partnerships.

4. Future Prospects

• While DRM offers potential revenue gains, progress is hampered by limited administrative capacity, narrow economic bases, and political constraints.
• Strengthening fiscal sustainability, diversifying economies, and enhancing international cooperation are key to long-term resilience.
• The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has supported countries through technical assistance, policy reforms, and pilot projects on digital tax administration, highlighting the need for sustained capacity-building and strategic sequencing.

Conclusion
The report emphasizes that DRM is critical for fiscal sustainability in the Pacific, but the focus must balance immediate revenue needs, economic diversification, and climate resilience to support inclusive growth and meet Sustainable Development Goals.