2021-10-31-亚开行-气候风险国家概况_东帝汶（英）_28页_1mb

Climate Risk Country Profile Summary: Timor-Leste

Key Messages

• Timor-Leste's tropical climate is heavily influenced by the West Pacific Monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), leading to high variability in rainfall and temperature extremes.
• By the 2090s, annual mean temperatures could rise by up to 3°C under high emissions scenarios, with increased frequency of heatwaves, floods, and extreme rainfall events.
• Agriculture, which supports 66% of the population, is highly vulnerable to climate change due to altered rainfall patterns and temperature increases, potentially reducing yields and threatening food security.
• High poverty levels (41.8% below poverty line) and geographic vulnerability amplify risks, with women and children being disproportionately affected.
• Sea-level rise and storm surges threaten coastal zones, including the capital Dili, with potential population displacement and economic losses if adaptation measures are not implemented.
• Existing policies include the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and national adaptation programs, supported by international partners like the World Bank Group and Asian Development Bank to enhance climate resilience.

Country Overview

Timor-Leste is a small, mountainous nation with a population of about 1.3 million, highly dependent on agriculture and prone to high vulnerabilities due to limited infrastructure, high poverty rates, and exposure to natural hazards. Ranked 113th in the ND-GAIN Index for climate vulnerability and low resilience capacity.

Climate Change Impacts

• Water Resources: Altered rainfall patterns increase risks of drought and flooding; sea-level rise threatens groundwater and coastal infrastructure.
• Economic Sectors: Agriculture faces yield reductions with climate change, impacting food security; fisheries may see minor gains but overall declines by 2050.
• Society and Health: Extreme heat poses significant health risks, including heat stress and vector-borne diseases like dengue and malaria; poverty and inequality exacerbate vulnerability.
• Environment: Biodiversity and coastal ecosystems are at risk due to rising sea levels, coral bleaching, and habitat loss from landslides and erosion.

Policies and Programs

• National-level policies include the NDC, National Disaster Risk Management Plan, and adaptation programs like the National Adaptation Programme of Action.
• International support from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank focuses on integrating climate resilience into development strategies, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable infrastructure investments through financial and technical assistance.