亚开行-气候风险国家概况：巴基斯坦（英文）-2021.5-32页_2mb

Climate Risk Country Profile: Pakistan

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of climate risks and their implications for Pakistan, highlighting the country's vulnerability to climate change and the need for adaptive strategies. It is a joint effort by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), utilizing data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) and other sources to assess climate trends, future projections, and sector-specific impacts.

Key Messages

• Rapid Warming: Pakistan is experiencing warming rates significantly above the global average, with a potential temperature rise of 1.3°C to 4.9°C by the 2090s compared to the 1986-2005 baseline.
• Temperature Trends: Increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to be stronger than the average temperature rise, likely exacerbating health, livelihood, and ecosystem pressures.
• Precipitation Uncertainty: Annual rainfall and runoff patterns are highly uncertain, but there is an increasing likelihood of drought conditions.
• Extreme Events: The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are expected to rise, increasing disaster risks, especially for vulnerable and poor communities.
• Flood Exposure: By 2035–2044, around 5 million people are projected to be exposed to extreme river floods, and by 2070–2100, about 1 million people annually could face coastal flooding.
• Agricultural Impacts: Yields of key food and cash crops (e.g., wheat, cotton, rice) are expected to decline under various emissions scenarios.
• Urban Vulnerability: Temperature increases will disproportionately affect urban dwellers and outdoor laborers, increasing the risk of heat-related illness and death.
• Poverty and Inequality: Climate risks occur against a backdrop of high and persistent undernourishment and poverty, emphasizing the urgency for effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures.

Country Overview

• Geography and Economy: Pakistan has diverse topography and ecosystems. It is a semi-industrialized country with a shift from an agriculture-based to a service-based economy.
• Population and Poverty: As of 2019, the population was 216.5 million, with 24.3% living below the poverty line and 12.3% undernourished.
• Climate Vulnerability: Ranked 152nd on the Notre-Dame GAIN Index (2019), indicating moderate vulnerability to climate change.
• Climate Policy: The Government of Pakistan has established the Ministry of Climate Change and issued its Second National Communication on Climate Change in 2019. It ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC.

Climatology

Climate Baseline

• Pakistan's climate is highly variable, influenced by its diverse topography.
• The country experiences four seasons: cool and dry winter (Dec–Feb), hot and dry spring (Mar–May), summer rainy season (Jun–Sep), and retreating monsoons (Oct–Nov).
• Annual rainfall is uneven, with the Northern regions receiving the most (up to 200 mm/month during monsoon season), while arid plains and coastal areas have seen a decline of 10–15% in rainfall since 1960.

Key Trends

• Temperature Increase: Warming in Pakistan has been 0.57°C over the 20th century, with 0.47°C between 1961–2007. Warming is more pronounced in winter and post-monsoon months.
• Regional Variability: Southern regions (Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan) have experienced 0.91°C–1.12°C of warming, while the north (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) has seen 0.52°C.
• Precipitation: There has been a slight increasing trend in precipitation since 1960, with some models suggesting an increase in annual rainfall under RCP8.5 by the end of the century.

Climate Future

• RCP Scenarios: Four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed, with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 being the focus. RCP2.6 represents low emissions, while RCP8.5 assumes continued high emissions.
• Temperature Projections: Under RCP8.5, the model ensemble projects an average temperature increase of 5.3°C by the end of the century, significantly higher than the global average of 3.7°C.
• Seasonal Trends: The model ensemble shows a stronger increase in temperature during October–December than June–August, consistent with historical patterns.
• Precipitation Projections: While changes in annual precipitation are not statistically significant across all models, 12 out of 16 models suggest an increase in average annual rainfall by the end of the century under RCP8.5.

Climate Change Impacts

Natural Resources

• Water: Uncertainty surrounds future rainfall and runoff, but drought conditions are expected to increase.
• Coastal Zones: Coastal flooding is projected to affect 1 million people annually by 2070–2100.
• Land and Soil: Drought and changing precipitation patterns are likely to impact soil degradation and agricultural productivity.

Economic Sectors

• Agriculture: Key crops such as wheat, cotton, sugarcane, maize, and rice are projected to experience yield declines.
• Urban and Energy: Urban populations are at higher risk due to increased temperatures, and energy systems may face greater demand and stress from extreme weather events.

Communities

• Vulnerability: Poor and minority groups are particularly at risk from climate-related disasters.
• Health: Heat-related illnesses and deaths are expected to rise.
• Poverty and Inequality: Climate risks compound existing poverty and deprivation issues.
• Gender and Migration: Women and marginalized groups face heightened vulnerability, and migration due to climate stress is a growing concern.

Policies and Programmes

• National Adaptation Policies: Pakistan's National Climate Change Policy emphasizes adaptation to climate change, given the immediate need.
• ADB and WBG Priorities: Both institutions have identified climate resilience and adaptation as key operational priorities.
• ADB Country Partnership Strategy: Focuses on supporting Pakistan's efforts to tackle climate change and build resilience.
• WBG Country Partnership Framework: Incorporates climate and disaster risk screening into all development operations, using the Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool.
• Collaboration: The WBG and ADB have collaborated to develop standardized climate risk assessments, enhancing the capacity of development practitioners to integrate climate resilience into planning.

Conclusion

This document underscores the significant climate risks Pakistan faces, including rising temperatures, uncertain precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme events. These risks have direct implications for health, livelihoods, ecosystems, and economic stability, especially for vulnerable populations. The need for effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures is urgent, and the WBG and ADB are committed to supporting Pakistan in building a low-carbon, climate-resilient future.