粮农组织2021-2030年农业展望（英）-337页_5mb

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 Summary

Core Content

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 provides a comprehensive analysis of global agricultural and food markets over the next decade, focusing on trends, demand, supply, trade, and prices. It is a joint publication by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), reflecting the combined expertise of both organizations and their member countries.

Main Viewpoints

1. Impact of the Pandemic and SDGs

• The 2021 UN Food Systems Summit is seen as a pivotal moment to reshape agri-food systems to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).
• The pandemic has disrupted agricultural systems, pushing the world further from achieving SDG targets.
• Without additional efforts, zero hunger and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture may not be met by 2030.

2. Global Agricultural Trends

• Productivity improvements are expected to drive most of the agricultural production growth needed to feed the growing global population.
• These improvements require continued investment in infrastructure, R&D, digitalisation, and human capital.
• Sustainable yield increases and reduced environmental impact are critical for long-term resilience and efficiency.

3. Dietary Changes and Food Security

• Low-income countries will continue to rely on staple foods, making food security a persistent challenge.
• Middle- and high-income countries will see an increase in the consumption of fats and animal products, highlighting the need for healthier diets and policy interventions.
• FAO's Hand in Hand initiative encourages a shift towards more sustainable and healthy consumption patterns.

4. Market and Price Projections

• The baseline scenario for the Outlook is based on expert analysis and considers climate change, policy environments, and market dynamics.
• Agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain relatively flat in real terms over the medium-term, despite short-term volatility.
• AMIS and FAO Food Outlook are key tools for monitoring and forecasting market trends.

5. Trade and Global Food Security

• Trade remains vital for food security, nutrition, and rural development.
• Trade restrictions are counterproductive and threaten global food security.
• Intra-regional trade, especially in Africa, is gaining importance due to disruptions in global logistics.

Key Information

• The Outlook covers a wide range of commodities, regions, and markets, including:

  • Cereals
  • Oilseeds and oilseed products
  • Sugar
  • Meat
  • Dairy
  • Fish
  • Biofuels
  • Cotton
  • Other products

• It includes regional briefs and statistical data to provide insights into market conditions, price trends, production levels, and trade balances.

• Boxes in the Outlook highlight specific topics:

  • Box 1.1: Factors influencing fruit and vegetable consumption.
  • Box 1.2: Agricultural productivity growth potential in Africa.
  • Box 1.3: Trade's role in achieving the SDGs.
  • Box 1.4: Agri-food systems transformation.
  • Box 3.1: Agricultural investments and rice price stability under climate change.
  • Box 9.1: Overview of biofuels.

• The Outlook is open-access, available through www.agri-outlook.org, and includes StatLinks for downloading Excel files from the data presented in tables and figures.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for sustainable and resilient agri-food systems in the face of global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and economic shifts. It calls for policy coherence, innovation, and investment to ensure food security, nutritional improvements, and environmental sustainability. The Outlook serves as a valuable resource for decision-makers to guide future agricultural policies and practices.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

• Maintaining food security for a growing population.
• Reducing GHG emissions from agriculture to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
• Promoting sustainable diets in middle- and high-income countries.
• Ensuring fair and open trade systems to support global food access.
• Leveraging technology and data to improve productivity and sustainability.