经合组织-粮农组织2024-2033年农业展望（英）-335页_5mb

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 Summary

Core Content

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 is a joint report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which provides a ten-year projection of agricultural and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels. This report reflects on the evolution of global agriculture over the past two decades and outlines future trends, driven by factors such as population growth, income changes, climate change, and trade dynamics.

Main Viewpoints

1. Global Agricultural and Fisheries Trends

• Emerging economies have increasingly driven global agricultural and fisheries market developments over the past 20 years and are expected to continue doing so in the next decade.
• China is expected to see a decline in its influence over global food and agricultural consumption, while India and Southeast Asia are projected to grow in importance due to increasing urban populations and rising affluence.
• Calorie intake is expected to increase by 7% in middle-income countries, primarily due to higher consumption of staples, livestock products, and fats.
• Low-income countries are expected to see a slower growth in calorie intake at 4%, which is insufficient to meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) target of zero hunger by 2030.

2. Agricultural Production and Consumption

• The report outlines the projected evolution of agricultural production and consumption for the period 2024–2033, including changes in yield, land use, and commodity demand.
• Productivity improvements are expected to drive growth in agriculture, rather than expansion of cultivated land or livestock herds.
• Food loss and waste are identified as a critical issue, with a 50% reduction expected to lower global agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 4% and reduce the number of undernourished people by 153 million by 2030.

3. Global Trade and Market Dynamics

• International agricultural commodity markets are expected to remain vital for global food security, with 20% of calories traded globally.
• Trade patterns will shift as production and consumption centers change, especially in regions like Developed and East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Real international reference prices for main agricultural commodities are projected to slightly fall over the next decade, though local retail food prices may not reflect this due to market dynamics and policy interventions.

4. Regional Outlooks

• Developed and East Asia: China is a major driver of growth in agriculture and fish output.
• South and Southeast Asia: Growth in agriculture and fish output is expected to slow.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Low per capita income and limited use of fertilizers are key challenges.
• Near East and North Africa: Food self-sufficiency ratios and trade balances are important indicators.
• Europe and Central Asia: The region is expected to maintain its role in agricultural trade and production.
• North America: The U.S. and Canada are expected to maintain their positions in global markets.
• Latin America and the Caribbean: The region is expected to experience growth in exports and consumption of key commodities.

5. Key Commodities

• Cereals: Projections highlight regional contributions to production and consumption growth, with a focus on yield improvements and trade dynamics.
• Oilseeds and oilseed products: Expected to see increased use in food, feed, and biofuel sectors, with rising demand for protein meal and vegetable oil.
• Sugar: Consumption and trade trends are outlined, with a focus on regional demand and global price movements.
• Meat: Projected to grow, with a significant rise in GHG emissions from meat production in Africa.
• Dairy and dairy products: Trends in production, consumption, and trade are analyzed, including the role of trade and market price support.
• Fish: Expected to grow in consumption, with a focus on aquaculture and capture fisheries, and the impact of trade and biofuel demand on fishmeal use.
• Biofuels: Projected to grow in consumption and trade, with biofuel prices expected to be influenced by feedstock prices and policy changes.

Key Information

• The report includes 20 years of collaboration between OECD and FAO, offering a long-term perspective on agricultural markets.
• It covers 11 regional aggregates and 38 individual countries, classified into four income groups: Low-Income Countries (LIC), Lower-Middle-Income Countries (LMC), Upper-Middle-Income Countries (UMC), and High-Income Countries (HIC).
• Sustainable intensification and climate change adaptation are emphasized as key strategies for improving agricultural outcomes, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Trade is highlighted as a critical factor in mitigating the impact of extreme weather events and improving rural livelihoods.
• The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG2 (Zero Hunger), are referenced as a benchmark for assessing food security progress.

Conclusion

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 serves as a comprehensive reference for understanding the future of global agricultural and fisheries markets. It underscores the importance of policy planning, market dynamics, and sustainable practices in shaping the future of food production and consumption. The report also highlights the role of trade in enhancing food security and the need for reducing food loss and waste to meet climate and hunger targets.