2014-12-31-莱坊-The_investment_market_Q3_2015_7页_911kb

报告摘要

Total investment volumes: €10.8 billion in the first 3 quarters of 2015.
Q3 2015 performance: Investment volumes in commercial property in the Paris region fell by 4% compared to Q3 2014.
Reason for decline: The drop is primarily due to the limited number of very large transactions (over €500 million) that had driven up investment volumes in the previous year.
Positive outlook: Despite the decline, Q3 2015 results were encouraging, ranking fourth in investment volumes since the 2007/2008 financial crisis.
Market trend: The investment market is characterised by numerous medium-sized transactions (€50–€200 million), indicating investor confidence in the Paris market.

Western Crescent and outlying markets outperformed: These areas showed better performance compared to others in the region.
Market share by sector (2015):
- Paris CBD: €1,694 million
- Rest of Paris: €2,870 million
- La Défense: €1,095 million
- Western Crescent: €2,610 million
- Inner Rim: €1,835 million
- Other: €846 million
- Total Ile-de-France: €10,832 million

Notable deals in 2015:
- Sept. 2015:
  - Portefeuille Aqua (Western Crescent, €250 million) – Purchaser: Amundi, Vendor: Union Investment
  - Angle (Western Crescent, €145 million) – Purchaser: AG2R, Vendor: Gecina
  - Eléments (Rest of Paris, €140 million) – Purchaser: Aviva, Vendor: Vinci
- July 2015:
  - Tour T1 / Immeuble B (La Défense, €900 million) – Purchaser: Gecina, Vendor: Ivanhoé Cambridge
  - 6 place d'Alleray (Rest of Paris, €224 million) – Purchaser: CNP Assurances, Vendor: JP Morgan Investment
- June 2015:
  - Colisée 3 & 4 (Inner Rim, €159 million) – Purchaser: Amundi, Vendor: Blackstone
- April 2015:
  - Tours Pascal (La Défense, €190 million) – Purchaser: Goldman Sachs / Altafund, Vendor: Morgan Stanley
- Feb. 2015:
  - 23/25 rue Marignan (Paris CBD, €215 million) – Purchaser: CNP Assurances, Vendor: Invesco
  - Seine Ouest (Rest of Paris, €90 million) – Purchaser: HSBC, Vendor: AG2R La Mondiale
- Jan. 2015:
  - Ecowest (Western Crescent, €477 million) – Purchaser: Adia, Vendor: BNP Paribas

CBD investment share: 37% for the first 3 quarters of 2015 compared to 2014.
Investment trend: €1.7 billion invested in the CBD since the beginning of the year, representing a 37% drop in investment volumes, while the rest of the region saw a 15% increase.
Concentration in Q3: The CBD remained a concentrated market in Q3 2015, with one transaction (PSA headquarters for €340 million) accounting for 43% of the investment volumes.
Reason for decline: The drop is not due to disaffection but rather a shortage of transferable assets, caused by strong performance in previous years.
Malthusian market: The CBD is a hyperspecialised market for Core assets, which limits supply and affects investment volumes.

Office assets: Office assets have been highly specialist, indicating strong demand in this sector.
Other asset types: Retail and other assets also saw activity, though not as prominently as office assets.

Value Added assets: The return on Value Added assets has been confirmed, indicating renewed investor interest.
Yield spreads: The spread between Core, Core Plus, and other asset classes shows an upward trend, which is helping to revive interest in Value Added assets.

Intermediary deals dominate: Deals under €50 million and €50–€200 million are the most common, suggesting a trend towards mid-sized transactions.

French investors: French investors have returned to the forefront, indicating a growing confidence in the local market.
International presence: Euro Zone, Europe (excluding Euro Zone), and Northern America investors also participated, though to a lesser extent than French investors.

Drastic fall in Prime yields: Prime yields in the Paris region have dropped significantly, with the CBD seeing yields between 3.50% and 3.75%, reaching an all-time low.
Comparison to 2007: Unlike 2007, the spread between Prime yields and bond yields remains advantageous for property assets.
Yield spread: The yield spread between the CBD and other markets is significant, though the downturn is now spreading across the entire Paris region.

Cyril Robert: Research, +33(0)143165596, cyril.robert@fr.knightfrank.com
Nadège Pieczynski: Analyst, +33(0)143168884, nadege.pieczynski@fr.knightfrank.com
Philippe Perello: Capital Markets, +33(0)143168886, philippe.perello@fr.knightfrank.com
Aron Shadbolt: Valuation, +33(0)143168896, aron.shadbolt@fr.knightfrank.com
Arnaud Cosny: L'Atelier Knight Frank, +33(0)143165600, arnaud.cosny@fr.knightfrank.com

This report is for general information only.
No legal responsibility is accepted for any loss or damage resulting from the contents of this document.
Reproduction is allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank Commercial Research.

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