> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # CEE Investment Market Summary (2025-2026) ## Core Content Overview The Central and Eastern European (CEE) investment market is expected to experience **moderate and uneven growth** in 2026, with a **stronger rebound by 2027**. The region is anticipated to outperform the EU average, driven by **domestic and regional capital**, as well as **renewed interest from international investors**. The market is characterized by **continued disinflation**, **policy normalisation**, and **stronger relative value compared to Western Europe**. ## Main Countries and Their Outlook ### **Poland** - **GDP Growth**: Projected at ~3.4% in 2025 and ~3.7% in 2026, making it the regional growth leader. - **Investment Activity**: Investment volumes declined by 12% to EUR 4.5 billion in 2025, but are expected to **strengthen in 2026**. - **Office Sector**: Warsaw's office market is highlighted as having **strong fundamentals** and **attractive buy opportunities**. - **Industrial Sector**: Strong occupier demand and rental resilience are expected, supported by nearshoring, e-commerce growth, and supply chain reconfiguration. - **Prime Yields**: Expected to remain stable, with capital values likely to increase due to rental growth. ### **Czech Republic** - **GDP Growth**: Expected to grow at ~2.6% in 2025 and ~2.9% in 2026, slightly above the EU average. - **Investment Activity**: Investment volumes are projected to **moderate** from 2025's record levels, but remain **highly liquid**. - **Office Sector**: Office transactions will continue to lead the market, with landmark deals like **Riverside complex** and **Port7**. - **Prime Yields**: Office and industrial prime yields are at **5.00% and 5.00%**, respectively, with **shopping centres at 5.75%**. ### **Hungary** - **GDP Growth**: Projected to rise from ~0.4% in 2025 to ~2.3% in 2026. - **Investment Activity**: Expected to **stabilise with modest improvement** in 2026, but volumes will remain **moderate** by CEE standards. - **Office Sector**: Office investment will continue to attract attention, particularly **prime and ESG-compliant assets** in Budapest. - **Industrial and Logistics**: Expected to see **sustained interest** due to strong occupier demand and structural growth trends. - **Prime Yields**: Office yields at ~6.50%, industrial at ~6.75%, and shopping centres at ~7.00%. ### **Romania** - **GDP Growth**: Forecast to underperform in 2025 and 2026 (~0.7% and ~1.1%), but is expected to **improve to ~2.1% in 2027**. - **Investment Activity**: Investment volumes fell by 27% to EUR 540 million in 2025, but a **rebound is expected in 2026**, especially in the **industrial sector**. - **Prime Yields**: Office yields at ~7.25%, industrial at ~7.50%, and shopping centres at ~7.25%. ### **Slovakia** - **GDP Growth**: Projected to decelerate in 2026 (~0.6%) but rebound to ~2.3% in 2027. - **Investment Activity**: Expected to **decline year-on-year** in 2026 due to **limited product availability**. - **Prime Yields**: Office and industrial yields at ~6.00%, shopping centres at ~6.50%. ## Key Sectors and Trends ### **Office Sector** - **Investment Share**: Accounted for **32%** of total CEE-5 investment volume in 2025. - **Trend**: Office assets are expected to **lead investment activity** in 2026, especially in **Poland, Hungary, and Romania**. - **Drivers**: Strong **rental growth potential**, **limited new supply**, and **ESG compliance**. - **Shift in Strategy**: Investor focus is moving from **value-add and opportunistic strategies** to **core and core+ assets**. ### **Industrial Sector** - **Investment Share**: Second most sought-after asset class, accounting for **25%** of total CEE-5 investment volume. - **Trend**: Sustained demand due to **e-commerce growth**, **resilient manufacturing**, and **domestic retail**. - **Key Transactions**: Sale and leaseback deals and industrial portfolios are attracting **institutional interest**. ### **Retail Sector** - **Investment Share**: Accounted for **17%** of total CEE-5 investment volume in 2025. - **Trend**: Large shopping centre deals remain limited, with **retail parks** driving liquidity due to **basic consumer needs**. - **Key Transactions**: Trei's 25 Vendo retail parks disposal in Poland and M Core's acquisition of seven retail parks in Romania. ## Investment Outlook and Drivers - **Positive Sentiment**: Expected to prevail across CEE in 2026, with **strong macroeconomic growth** and **resilient domestic consumer spending**. - **Liquidity**: Transaction volumes are expected to return to **levels seen in 2016-2019**, with **increasing local capital** participation. - **International Interest**: Global investors are capitalising on **early-cycle opportunities** in CEE, attracted by **stronger relative value** and **ESG compliance**. ## Key Insights - **Fiscal Discipline and Investment Efficiency**: Will be critical to the region's **medium-term prospects**. - **Regional Capital Dominance**: The **Czech Republic** remains the **largest source of capital** in CEE, with a strong presence in **Poland and Slovakia**. - **Structural Drivers**: **Nearshoring**, **e-commerce**, and **supply chain reconfiguration** are key **industrial sector drivers**. - **ESG and Core Assets**: Are becoming **increasingly attractive** to global investors. ## Conclusion The CEE investment market is poised for **recovery and growth** in 2026, with **Poland and the Czech Republic** leading the charge. While **Romania and Slovakia** face more constrained outlooks, **Hungary and the industrial sector** are expected to show **modest improvements**. The market is **resilient**, **attractive**, and **well-positioned** for continued **investment inflows** and **capital value appreciation**.