2026-03-09-莱坊-CEE_Investment_Market_2025_-_2026_4页_260kb

CEE Investment Market Summary (2025-2026)

Core Content Overview

The Central and Eastern European (CEE) investment market is expected to experience moderate and uneven growth in 2026, with a stronger rebound by 2027. The region is anticipated to outperform the EU average, driven by domestic and regional capital, as well as renewed interest from international investors. The market is characterized by continued disinflation, policy normalisation, and stronger relative value compared to Western Europe.

Main Countries and Their Outlook

Poland

• GDP Growth: Projected at ~3.4% in 2025 and ~3.7% in 2026, making it the regional growth leader.
• Investment Activity: Investment volumes declined by 12% to EUR 4.5 billion in 2025, but are expected to strengthen in 2026.
• Office Sector: Warsaw's office market is highlighted as having strong fundamentals and attractive buy opportunities.
• Industrial Sector: Strong occupier demand and rental resilience are expected, supported by nearshoring, e-commerce growth, and supply chain reconfiguration.
• Prime Yields: Expected to remain stable, with capital values likely to increase due to rental growth.

Czech Republic

• GDP Growth: Expected to grow at ~2.6% in 2025 and ~2.9% in 2026, slightly above the EU average.
• Investment Activity: Investment volumes are projected to moderate from 2025's record levels, but remain highly liquid.
• Office Sector: Office transactions will continue to lead the market, with landmark deals like Riverside complex and Port7.
• Prime Yields: Office and industrial prime yields are at 5.00% and 5.00%, respectively, with shopping centres at 5.75%.

Hungary

• GDP Growth: Projected to rise from ~0.4% in 2025 to ~2.3% in 2026.
• Investment Activity: Expected to stabilise with modest improvement in 2026, but volumes will remain moderate by CEE standards.
• Office Sector: Office investment will continue to attract attention, particularly prime and ESG-compliant assets in Budapest.
• Industrial and Logistics: Expected to see sustained interest due to strong occupier demand and structural growth trends.
• Prime Yields: Office yields at ~6.50%, industrial at ~6.75%, and shopping centres at ~7.00%.

Romania

• GDP Growth: Forecast to underperform in 2025 and 2026 (~0.7% and ~1.1%), but is expected to improve to ~2.1% in 2027.
• Investment Activity: Investment volumes fell by 27% to EUR 540 million in 2025, but a rebound is expected in 2026, especially in the industrial sector.
• Prime Yields: Office yields at ~7.25%, industrial at ~7.50%, and shopping centres at ~7.25%.

Slovakia

• GDP Growth: Projected to decelerate in 2026 (~0.6%) but rebound to ~2.3% in 2027.
• Investment Activity: Expected to decline year-on-year in 2026 due to limited product availability.
• Prime Yields: Office and industrial yields at ~6.00%, shopping centres at ~6.50%.

Key Sectors and Trends

Office Sector

• Investment Share: Accounted for 32% of total CEE-5 investment volume in 2025.
• Trend: Office assets are expected to lead investment activity in 2026, especially in Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
• Drivers: Strong rental growth potential, limited new supply, and ESG compliance.
• Shift in Strategy: Investor focus is moving from value-add and opportunistic strategies to core and core+ assets.

Industrial Sector

• Investment Share: Second most sought-after asset class, accounting for 25% of total CEE-5 investment volume.
• Trend: Sustained demand due to e-commerce growth, resilient manufacturing, and domestic retail.
• Key Transactions: Sale and leaseback deals and industrial portfolios are attracting institutional interest.

Retail Sector

• Investment Share: Accounted for 17% of total CEE-5 investment volume in 2025.
• Trend: Large shopping centre deals remain limited, with retail parks driving liquidity due to basic consumer needs.
• Key Transactions: Trei's 25 Vendo retail parks disposal in Poland and M Core's acquisition of seven retail parks in Romania.

Investment Outlook and Drivers

• Positive Sentiment: Expected to prevail across CEE in 2026, with strong macroeconomic growth and resilient domestic consumer spending.
• Liquidity: Transaction volumes are expected to return to levels seen in 2016-2019, with increasing local capital participation.
• International Interest: Global investors are capitalising on early-cycle opportunities in CEE, attracted by stronger relative value and ESG compliance.

Key Insights

• Fiscal Discipline and Investment Efficiency: Will be critical to the region's medium-term prospects.
• Regional Capital Dominance: The Czech Republic remains the largest source of capital in CEE, with a strong presence in Poland and Slovakia.
• Structural Drivers: Nearshoring, e-commerce, and supply chain reconfiguration are key industrial sector drivers.
• ESG and Core Assets: Are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors.

Conclusion

The CEE investment market is poised for recovery and growth in 2026, with Poland and the Czech Republic leading the charge. While Romania and Slovakia face more constrained outlooks, Hungary and the industrial sector are expected to show modest improvements. The market is resilient, attractive, and well-positioned for continued investment inflows and capital value appreciation.