2023-01-27-莱坊-Review_Outlook_-_French_Property_Market_2022-2023_77页_6mb

报告摘要

Summary of the French Property Markets: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook

Core Content

The 2022 review and 2023 outlook for the French property market highlights a significant slowdown in investment activity, particularly in the fourth quarter, and a shift in investor focus towards more diversified and resilient asset classes. Despite this, France remains a key player in the European real estate investment landscape.

Main Points

Investment Trends

Overall Investment Volumes: Investment volumes in France declined by 4% year-on-year in 2022, with a sharp drop of -53% in Q4, marking the lowest Q4 level since 2013.
Global Context: The global real estate investment volume dropped by 25% in 2022 compared to the previous year, with France performing relatively well compared to other European markets.
Foreign Investment: Foreign investment in France decreased by 23% year-on-year, with North Americans being the most active foreign investors, followed by the British and Germans.
Funds vs. SCPI/OPCIs: While funds remained the dominant investor, the share of SCPI/OPCIs increased, indicating a growing trend in diversified investment strategies.

Office Market

Performance: The office market experienced its worst performance since 2013, with a 4% decrease in total investment volumes and a 54% drop in Q4.
Market Share: Offices represented 54% of total investment in 2022, down from 62% in 2021.
Regional Impact: The Greater Paris Region saw a more significant decline in office investment, with a 5% decrease year-on-year, while other regions showed a more stable performance.
Core Assets Dominance: Core assets still dominated the office market, with a focus on secure and well-located properties.

Retail Market

Performance: The retail market had its third-best year on record, with 5.7 billion euros invested, a 16% increase over the ten-year average.
Portfolio Activity: Portfolio sales contributed significantly to the retail market, accounting for 41% of the total investment volume in 2022.
Retail Parks: Retail parks saw a record year with 1.5 billion euros invested, a 78% increase compared to the ten-year average, driven by both portfolio and individual asset sales.
Food Retail: Food and convenience stores remained highly in demand, with 740 million euros invested, a 51% increase year-on-year.

Industrial Market

Performance: The industrial market had its second-best year on record, with over 6 billion euros invested, a 14% decrease from 2021 but still 79% above the ten-year average.
Logistics Focus: Logistics and data center developments were key drivers, with a notable increase in interest in light industrial premises.
Portfolio Share: Portfolios accounted for 47% of industrial investments in 2022, and 75% of sales were to foreign investors.

Key Information

2022 Highlights

Investment volumes fell sharply in Q4, with offices being the most affected.
The new financial climate, including rising interest rates and inflation, led to a withdrawal of over 6 billion euros from the market.
Regional markets outperformed the Greater Paris Region, which saw a 5% decrease.
Foreign investors were less active, with their share dropping to 35% of total investment volumes.
SCPIs played a significant role in the office market, particularly in portfolio transactions.

2023 Outlook

France is expected to remain in the Top 5 most popular real estate markets for foreign investment.
Offices will continue to be the largest share of investment, although their dominance may wane in favor of retail, industrial, and alternative assets.
Regional markets are anticipated to see continued stability and growth, supported by geographical diversification strategies.
Changes in use, such as conversion to housing and student accommodation, will play a more prominent role in 2023.

Asset Class Breakdown

Offices: 54% of total investment in 2022 (down from 62% in 2021).
Retail: 18% of total investment in 2022 (up from 13% in 2021).
Industrial: 18% of total investment in 2022 (up from 12% in 2021).
Residential: 17% of total investment in 2022.
Healthcare: 3% of total investment in 2022.
Hotels: 6% of total investment in 2022.

Strategic Shifts

Diversification: Investors are increasingly diversifying their portfolios, moving away from offices towards more resilient sectors.
Yield Adjustments: Prime yields increased, with the most significant adjustments in logistics and industrial properties.
Conversion Opportunities: Properties with potential for conversion to residential or other uses are becoming more attractive, especially in the Inner Suburbs and western Paris.

Conclusion

The French property market in 2022 faced headwinds due to the new financial climate and a shift in investor preferences. Despite these challenges, France maintained its position as a key market, with continued interest in retail, industrial, and residential assets. The trend towards diversification and the increasing importance of sustainable and adaptable properties are expected to shape the market in 2023.

展开完整摘要