2025-05-22-Bernstein-法航-荷航（AF）_法国航空-荷兰皇家航空尼斯会议-高端需求的稳固性_10页_299kb

CONFERENCE FEEDBACK: Air France-KLM

Key Discussion Points & Summary:

• Company Representation: Air France-KLM presented at the Nice Conference on May 20th by Steven Zaat (Chief Financial Officer) and Marouane Mami (Investor Relations Head).
• Investor Focus: The primary concern was demand resilience, particularly transatlantic demand, amidst some concern about non-premium yields in the first half of the year.
• Demand Trend: Overall, the T2 was considered satisfactory. Revenue per Seat Occupied (Yield) remained strong, driving July-April revenue growth.
  • Transatlantic demand shifted more towards US sales points.
  • Premiumisation continues, potentially causing revenue spill ("loss" of revenue).
  • Main Cabin bookings remained weak for T3.
• Financial Performance (Analyst Estimates):
  • EBITDA 2025E: €5.386 billion
  • EBIT 2025E: €2.308 billion
  • Objective/Target Price (TP): €9.00 EUR
  • Recomandation: Market Perform (M)
  • PER 2025E: 1.7x
  • EV/EBITDA 2025E: 2.6x
  • Analyst View: Neutral outlook, citing sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, potential fuel price impact, and regulatory risks (Schiphol capacity cap).
• Operational Updates:
  • Management noted two cost benefits: improved fuel price environment (€600M saving vs prices) and other cost savings partly offset by taxes.
  • Pilots from both carriers are now flying the combined fleet ("mixing of the fleets").
  • A320neo aircraft in the medium-haul fleet need replacement, likely with A220s.
  • High CapEx driven primarily by fleet renewal (ongoing through 2028). Further discussions with Air Europa regarding investment.
• Other Segments:
  • Cargo activity: Stable volumes expected, good yields assumed. Risks include potential excess capacity from capacity shifts and less immediate recession impact vs. trade tariffs.
• Disclaimer: Investor sentiment influenced by fuel prices, yields, selling of ancillaries, regulatory environment.
• Conflicts/Law: Typical Bernstein/Goldman Sachs disclosures apply, including potential conflicts and specific geographic limitations/regulatory compliance.