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Summary: U.S. Airlines

Screening trends at U.S. airports have softened, with YoY growth in TSA screenings declining over the past week, particularly at high-traffic airports like LAX and Florida hubs. Florida, Phoenix, and Newark airports show significant YoY contraction, though Newark shows slight sequential improvement. In contrast, JFK and Las Vegas airports demonstrate strong positive YoY growth, indicating improving foot traffic trends.

The Big 4 U.S. airlines experienced shared YoY downtowns of 3-4%, with UAL (United Airlines) performing worst due to its heavy exposure to Newark airport, affected by operational issues and reduced flights. Spirit Airlines, which focuses on leisure travel, saw the steepest decline in the last 7 days (-5.2%) tied to its high exposure in Florida's Miami and Fort Lauderdale airports.

Investment implications highlight softness in screening data, driven by consumer uncertainty and weaker leisure demand, noted in the Big 4's recent performance. Valuation targets were set: AAL $15, DAL $61, LUV $31, UAL $105. Key risks include economic slowdowns, regulatory changes, increased competition, fuel price volatility, and operational disruptions like strikes or weather events.

Key airports driving trends: LAX leads with high traffic but struggles, while JFK, Las Vegas, and low-cost carriers like Spirit incur losses amid soft travel demand. United exposures to Newark amplify regional weaknesses.

Overall, the analysis suggests cautious outlook with varied execution across carriers as screening data softens, impacting valuation and capacity-weighted trends.